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GOLD - A false breakout of resistance within a bearish trend

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XAUUSD has broken out of its short-term descending channel within the current distribution phase and is now testing the 4134 liquidity zone while printing fresh intermediate highs. Despite the technical recovery, the broader fundamental backdrop remains weak

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Gold remains caught between geopolitical support and pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and elevated real yields. Analysts note that a sustainable recovery would likely require lower oil prices, declining bond yields, and softer expectations for further monetary tightening. Until then, the upside potential is expected to remain limited.
At the moment, oil prices continue to rise, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened for a fifth consecutive session, maintaining its broader bullish trend.
Bullish drivers: Geopolitical de-escalation, Falling oil prices, A weaker U.S. dollar, Softer expectations for Fed rate hikes
Bearish drivers: Escalation of geopolitical tensions, Rising oil prices, Hawkish Fed rhetoric, Continued U.S. dollar strength

Resistance levels: 4124, 4134, 4195
Support levels: 4103, 4067, 4028


Technically, the market is testing a key liquidity pool within the current distribution phase and may be forming a short squeeze. If bears manage to keep price below the 4124–4134 resistance zone, it could trigger another leg lower in line with the broader daily bearish trend

Best regards,
R. Linda
액티브 트레이드
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