Gold is currently trading around 4,345, inside a broader descending H4 structure.
Price remains below the upper boundary of the descending channel, while the latest recovery is approaching an important resistance area around the previous weekly high.
FOMC Macro Context
Markets are entering today's FOMC decision with a strong expectation of a 25 bps rate hike. The latest market pricing indicated around a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, which would move the Fed funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%.
The inflation backdrop remains important, with persistent price pressures and elevated energy prices keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% objective. At the same time, the August labor-market data showed 162K payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, adding to the case for tighter policy.
Because the rate hike itself is largely priced in, the bigger market catalyst may be the Fed's forward guidance, projections and Kevin Warsh's press conference. A more hawkish repricing could support the USD and Treasury yields, potentially creating additional selling pressure on Gold. Conversely, a softer-than-expected message could produce the opposite reaction.
Technical Scenario
My preferred scenario is not to chase the initial FOMC move.
If the news creates enough bullish volatility to push Gold higher, I will monitor the 4,450–4,460 area.
This zone corresponds with the previous weekly high and major H4 resistance visible on the chart.
If price reaches this area and produces:
Liquidity grab → rejection → bearish displacement → MSS/BOS → retest
then I will look for a potential SELL setup.
The objective of this move would be a return toward the lower part of the current descending structure, with the main reaction zone located around:
🟢 4,230–4,240
This is the area where I would then monitor Gold for a potential BUY opportunity, again waiting for confirmation rather than entering blindly at the level.
Roadmap
FOMC volatility
⬆️ 4,450–4,460
SELL / LIQUIDITY ZONE
⬇️ Bearish displacement
⬇️ 4,230–4,240
BUY / REACTION ZONE
The idea is therefore to let the market complete its liquidity expansion first and then react to the structure.
I am not predicting the first FOMC candle.
I am waiting to see whether the market:
takes liquidity → confirms structure → retests → continues.
If Gold reaches 4,450–4,460, I will look for confirmation for a short.
If Gold subsequently reaches 4,230–4,240, I will look for confirmation of a bullish reaction.
No chasing. No anticipation.
Patience. Precision. Execution.
— Discipline Creates Freedom.
👑 DYNAMIC ADVANCE 👑
Price remains below the upper boundary of the descending channel, while the latest recovery is approaching an important resistance area around the previous weekly high.
FOMC Macro Context
Markets are entering today's FOMC decision with a strong expectation of a 25 bps rate hike. The latest market pricing indicated around a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, which would move the Fed funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%.
The inflation backdrop remains important, with persistent price pressures and elevated energy prices keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% objective. At the same time, the August labor-market data showed 162K payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, adding to the case for tighter policy.
Because the rate hike itself is largely priced in, the bigger market catalyst may be the Fed's forward guidance, projections and Kevin Warsh's press conference. A more hawkish repricing could support the USD and Treasury yields, potentially creating additional selling pressure on Gold. Conversely, a softer-than-expected message could produce the opposite reaction.
Technical Scenario
My preferred scenario is not to chase the initial FOMC move.
If the news creates enough bullish volatility to push Gold higher, I will monitor the 4,450–4,460 area.
This zone corresponds with the previous weekly high and major H4 resistance visible on the chart.
If price reaches this area and produces:
Liquidity grab → rejection → bearish displacement → MSS/BOS → retest
then I will look for a potential SELL setup.
The objective of this move would be a return toward the lower part of the current descending structure, with the main reaction zone located around:
🟢 4,230–4,240
This is the area where I would then monitor Gold for a potential BUY opportunity, again waiting for confirmation rather than entering blindly at the level.
Roadmap
FOMC volatility
⬆️ 4,450–4,460
SELL / LIQUIDITY ZONE
⬇️ Bearish displacement
⬇️ 4,230–4,240
BUY / REACTION ZONE
The idea is therefore to let the market complete its liquidity expansion first and then react to the structure.
I am not predicting the first FOMC candle.
I am waiting to see whether the market:
takes liquidity → confirms structure → retests → continues.
If Gold reaches 4,450–4,460, I will look for confirmation for a short.
If Gold subsequently reaches 4,230–4,240, I will look for confirmation of a bullish reaction.
No chasing. No anticipation.
Patience. Precision. Execution.
— Discipline Creates Freedom.
👑 DYNAMIC ADVANCE 👑
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.