Macro has actually become more difficult for grains.
Negative factors :
DXY above 100
Real Yield above 2.25%
Bloomberg Commodity Index continues weakening ...Normally this combination argues against a sustained commodity rally.
However... Corn has stopped falling.....That divergence deserves attention. Wyckoff Assessment : This week's chart looks much better.
Selling Climax : 369
↓
Automatic Rally : 488
↓
Secondary Test : 404
↓
Current : 424
That sequence resembles a classic accumulation structure more than ongoing markdown.
The key difference from few weeks ago: Price is no longer making new lows.
Instead:
Higher low
↓
Recovery above Weekly POC
↓
Building cause ....This is constructive. Scenario 1
🟢 Re accumulation continues
Targets:
430
436
449
480
Scenario 2
🟡 Large Elliott Triangle
Sideways contraction before a decisive move. 🔴 Wave 5 decline toward 369
Would require:
break below 404
break below 394
Wheat and Soybeans rolling over together
continued USD strength with worsening crop fundamentals. Today, I think the evidence has shifted.
The technical structure is gradually becoming more constructive: Managed Money has moved to a net-short posture.
Commercials continue reducing hedges.
Price has reclaimed the weekly value area after the 404 liquidity sweep.
The biggest obstacle is macro, not structure. A DXY at 100.94 and real yields at 2.263% are significant headwinds. If those begin to soften while Wheat and Soybeans continue leading higher—as previously observed—the probability increases that Corn is completing a re accumulation phase rather than preparing for another major markdown.
Negative factors :
DXY above 100
Real Yield above 2.25%
Bloomberg Commodity Index continues weakening ...Normally this combination argues against a sustained commodity rally.
However... Corn has stopped falling.....That divergence deserves attention. Wyckoff Assessment : This week's chart looks much better.
Selling Climax : 369
↓
Automatic Rally : 488
↓
Secondary Test : 404
↓
Current : 424
That sequence resembles a classic accumulation structure more than ongoing markdown.
The key difference from few weeks ago: Price is no longer making new lows.
Instead:
Higher low
↓
Recovery above Weekly POC
↓
Building cause ....This is constructive. Scenario 1
🟢 Re accumulation continues
Targets:
430
436
449
480
Scenario 2
🟡 Large Elliott Triangle
Sideways contraction before a decisive move. 🔴 Wave 5 decline toward 369
Would require:
break below 404
break below 394
Wheat and Soybeans rolling over together
continued USD strength with worsening crop fundamentals. Today, I think the evidence has shifted.
The technical structure is gradually becoming more constructive: Managed Money has moved to a net-short posture.
Commercials continue reducing hedges.
Price has reclaimed the weekly value area after the 404 liquidity sweep.
The biggest obstacle is macro, not structure. A DXY at 100.94 and real yields at 2.263% are significant headwinds. If those begin to soften while Wheat and Soybeans continue leading higher—as previously observed—the probability increases that Corn is completing a re accumulation phase rather than preparing for another major markdown.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.