WHEAT FUTURES – Institutional Macro, COT, Elliott, Wyckoff & Liquidity Analysis
Executive Summary
Wheat at 590.4 is now sitting in one of the most important zones seen since the 2022 peak at 1364.
What's changed versus last week:
-Commercials dramatically increased longs (+13,907)
-Commercials aggressively reduced shorts (-17,842)
-Specs liquidated longs heavily
-Managed Money dumped longs (-25,555) and added shorts (+12,931)
-Price is now testing the confluence of:
Weekly POC (580)
Weekly 55 EMA (569)
Weekly structure support
Elliott Wave termination zone
This is beginning to look more like capitulation than the beginning of a fresh bear market. Probability
Scenario 1
Commercial accumulation + Wave C completion + Spring
Target:
603 → 620 → 630 → 679
Scenario 2
Final liquidity sweep into 569–563 before reversal
Target:
563 then reversal higher.
Scenario 3
Full bearish continuation
Requires:
DXY >100.5
Real Yield >2.35%
Weekly close below 563
Crop conditions improving materially
Executive Summary
Wheat at 590.4 is now sitting in one of the most important zones seen since the 2022 peak at 1364.
What's changed versus last week:
-Commercials dramatically increased longs (+13,907)
-Commercials aggressively reduced shorts (-17,842)
-Specs liquidated longs heavily
-Managed Money dumped longs (-25,555) and added shorts (+12,931)
-Price is now testing the confluence of:
Weekly POC (580)
Weekly 55 EMA (569)
Weekly structure support
Elliott Wave termination zone
This is beginning to look more like capitulation than the beginning of a fresh bear market. Probability
Scenario 1
Commercial accumulation + Wave C completion + Spring
Target:
603 → 620 → 630 → 679
Scenario 2
Final liquidity sweep into 569–563 before reversal
Target:
563 then reversal higher.
Scenario 3
Full bearish continuation
Requires:
DXY >100.5
Real Yield >2.35%
Weekly close below 563
Crop conditions improving materially
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.