Should You Buy, Sell or Hold MP Stock Before Q3 Earnings Release?

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MP Materials MP is scheduled to announce its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP’s third-quarter revenues is $116.5 million, indicating a 117.6% increase from the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings has moved down from 1 cent to the current projected loss of 1 cent per share over the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.

The projected earnings figure marks an improvement from the loss of 10 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

MP Materials’ Earnings Surprise History

MP Materials’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing in one quarter. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 100.9%, on average.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for MP Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MP Materials this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: MP has an Earnings ESP of -66.67%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped MP Materials’ Q3 Performance

MP Materials has maintained strong operational momentum since 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, the company produced a record 917 MT of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), up 63% year over year. Production increased 41% year over year to 840 metric tons in the second quarter of 2026 despite a scheduled semiannual maintenance outage at Mountain Pass.

The company sold 1,006 MT of NdPr in the second quarter, up 127% year over year.

MP Materials also produced 11,072 MT of rare earth concentrates in the second quarter. However, it reported no concentrate sales, following its decision to discontinue sales into China in July 2025. The company is instead processing the material into separated rare earth products or stockpiling it for future use.

The Materials segment generated revenues of $95.6 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 155% year over year, driven by stronger NdPr sales volumes and pricing, partially offset by the absence of concentrate sales. MP also recorded $17.58 million in income tied to a price protection agreement (PPA) with the Department of War (DoW).

Management indicated during the second-quarter conference call that NdPr production likely exceeded 1,000 MT in the third quarter of 2026, supported by improved throughput and plant reliability. The anticipated increase in production, coupled with stronger NdPr pricing and sales volumes, likely provided further support to the Materials segment's third-quarter performance.

The Magnetics segment reported revenues of $16.5 million in the second quarter of 2026. It is expected to have contributed more meaningfully in the third quarter of 2026 as production of magnetic precursor products increased. Additionally, the company is likely to have recognized further income under its PPA with the DoW, providing another source of support to its financial performance.

However, rising costs are expected to have remained a key headwind in the quarter as MP Materials accelerates its downstream expansion. The production of separated rare earth products and magnetic materials entails substantially higher costs than concentrate production, reflecting additional processing requirements, chemical inputs, labor and maintenance expenses. Cost of sales is likely to have remained elevated in the third quarter, driven by higher sales of NdPr oxide and metal and increased costs associated with magnetic precursor production. Meanwhile, continued investments in downstream capabilities are expected to have kept selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses elevated, adding to pressure on margins.

MP’s Price Performance & Valuation

MP Materials shares have declined 30.2% in a year against the industry’s 15.9% growth. In comparison, the Zacks Basic Materials sector has gained 14.7%, while the S&P 500 has risen 11.3% in the same period.

Meanwhile, peers Energy Fuels UUUU and Lynas Rare Earths Limited LYSDY have declined 56.6% and 4.6% in a year, respectively.

MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 9.85X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.65X. Energy Fuels and Lynas are trading at price-to-sales ratios of 10.61X and 7.13X, respectively.

Investment Thesis on MP

MP Materials remains the only fully integrated U.S. rare earth producer, with capabilities spanning mining, processing, metallization and magnet manufacturing. MP is expanding operations at its Independence facility and has begun construction of the 10X magnetics facility. Commissioning activities for scaled heavy rare earth separation are also expected to begin soon at Mountain Pass. Once operational, the new campus is expected to contribute to the company’s total production capacity of approximately 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB rare-earth magnets per year, advancing the nation’s ability to produce these strategic components domestically.

Should You Buy MP Materials Stock Now?

MP Materials remains well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for domestically produced rare earth materials and magnets, supported by its integrated business model, expanding production capabilities and significant long-term capacity investments. These strengths make the company an attractive long-term holding for existing shareholders.

However, MP continues to witness operating losses, elevated costs and substantial capital requirements, and decreased earnings estimates. The stock trades at a significant premium to the industry despite underperforming the broader market and industry over the past year. Investors may want to remain on the sidelines until the company demonstrates more consistent earnings improvement and better execution of its expansion plans.

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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold MP Stock Before Q3 Earnings Release?

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