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업데이트됨 4-Year Cycle Seasonal Chart (%)
4-Year Cycle Seasonal Chart (%) - Explanation
1. Logic Overview
This indicator is based on the hypothesis that markets move in a "4-year cycle" (an economic and financial cycle often exemplified by the US presidential election cycle).
Data Accumulation: It extracts data for years matching the cycle (e.g., every 4 years) over a specified lookback period. It records and averages daily performance, setting the start of the year (January 1st) as 0%.
Dynamic Calculation: It looks back from a specified base year and calculates the "Average Path" across all relevant years (in this case, every 4 years).
Future Projection: It projects the "expected path" based on historical average data as an orange line, extending from the current data point into the future.
2. Meaning of Each Line
Base Year (Blue) / Previous Year (Yellow) / Past Years (Orange/Red): Each colored line represents a specific year within the 4-year cycle group. By displaying them together, you can determine whether the current year is historically a period with a "strong upward bias" or a period prone to "corrections."
White Line (Current YTD): Represents the year-to-date performance of the current year. By comparing this to the historical average paths (colored lines), you can visually assess whether the asset is currently "stronger than average" (outperforming) or "weaker" (underperforming).
Orange Line (Projection Line): Plots the "average scenario" based on historical statistical data, extending from the current date into the future.
3. Practical Usage Workflow
① Assessing Strength/Weakness Relative to Seasonal Patterns
If the current white line (Current YTD) deviates significantly from the historical averages (colored lines), you can use this information to consider a contrarian trade (betting on mean reversion) or a trend-following trade (confirming the continuation of a strong trend).
By comparing the current year's performance (white line) against the historical lines, you can determine whether the asset is currently showing relative strength or weakness regarding these seasonal patterns. If the white line remains flat during a period where a decline is historically expected (an "anomaly"), it suggests the subsequent rise will be strong; conversely, if the white line remains flat during a period where a rise is expected, it suggests a significant drop will follow.
② Predicting "Seasonal Turning Points"
Within the four-year cycle, if historical anomalies exist—such as a tendency for a market correction around a specific month or a rally beginning around another—this indicator statistically highlights those periods.
Usage Tip: When the daily trend (based on VStop) is about to reverse, use this indicator to check if the timing aligns with historically probable reversal periods; it serves as a filter to increase your confidence in the trade.
③ The Advantage of Multi-Year Display
By displaying data for four years rather than just a single reference year, you can verify the consistency of trends over recent years. For instance, if there is a consistent tendency for prices to rise toward the end of the year across all displayed years, you can confidently extend the holding period for long positions.
4. Operational Tips
Lookback Years Setting: The default setting of "24 years" is suitable for capturing long-term trends. If you feel market conditions have shifted significantly (e.g., a dramatic change in interest rate environments), adjust this to 12 or 8 years to place greater emphasis on more recent cycles.
Market Adaptation: While four-year cycle anomalies are often very pronounced in US stock indices (such as ES or NQ), individual stocks or commodities may exhibit completely different cycles. Adjust the "Base Year" and "Lookback" settings according to the asset class you are trading to identify the cycle configuration that offers the best fit.
This tool is designed to help you grasp the "forest"—market seasonality—rather than focusing on the "trees"—short-term price fluctuations. By combining this with trend analysis from your main chart, you can formulate highly accurate trading strategies.
1. Logic Overview
This indicator is based on the hypothesis that markets move in a "4-year cycle" (an economic and financial cycle often exemplified by the US presidential election cycle).
Data Accumulation: It extracts data for years matching the cycle (e.g., every 4 years) over a specified lookback period. It records and averages daily performance, setting the start of the year (January 1st) as 0%.
Dynamic Calculation: It looks back from a specified base year and calculates the "Average Path" across all relevant years (in this case, every 4 years).
Future Projection: It projects the "expected path" based on historical average data as an orange line, extending from the current data point into the future.
2. Meaning of Each Line
Base Year (Blue) / Previous Year (Yellow) / Past Years (Orange/Red): Each colored line represents a specific year within the 4-year cycle group. By displaying them together, you can determine whether the current year is historically a period with a "strong upward bias" or a period prone to "corrections."
White Line (Current YTD): Represents the year-to-date performance of the current year. By comparing this to the historical average paths (colored lines), you can visually assess whether the asset is currently "stronger than average" (outperforming) or "weaker" (underperforming).
Orange Line (Projection Line): Plots the "average scenario" based on historical statistical data, extending from the current date into the future.
3. Practical Usage Workflow
① Assessing Strength/Weakness Relative to Seasonal Patterns
If the current white line (Current YTD) deviates significantly from the historical averages (colored lines), you can use this information to consider a contrarian trade (betting on mean reversion) or a trend-following trade (confirming the continuation of a strong trend).
By comparing the current year's performance (white line) against the historical lines, you can determine whether the asset is currently showing relative strength or weakness regarding these seasonal patterns. If the white line remains flat during a period where a decline is historically expected (an "anomaly"), it suggests the subsequent rise will be strong; conversely, if the white line remains flat during a period where a rise is expected, it suggests a significant drop will follow.
② Predicting "Seasonal Turning Points"
Within the four-year cycle, if historical anomalies exist—such as a tendency for a market correction around a specific month or a rally beginning around another—this indicator statistically highlights those periods.
Usage Tip: When the daily trend (based on VStop) is about to reverse, use this indicator to check if the timing aligns with historically probable reversal periods; it serves as a filter to increase your confidence in the trade.
③ The Advantage of Multi-Year Display
By displaying data for four years rather than just a single reference year, you can verify the consistency of trends over recent years. For instance, if there is a consistent tendency for prices to rise toward the end of the year across all displayed years, you can confidently extend the holding period for long positions.
4. Operational Tips
Lookback Years Setting: The default setting of "24 years" is suitable for capturing long-term trends. If you feel market conditions have shifted significantly (e.g., a dramatic change in interest rate environments), adjust this to 12 or 8 years to place greater emphasis on more recent cycles.
Market Adaptation: While four-year cycle anomalies are often very pronounced in US stock indices (such as ES or NQ), individual stocks or commodities may exhibit completely different cycles. Adjust the "Base Year" and "Lookback" settings according to the asset class you are trading to identify the cycle configuration that offers the best fit.
This tool is designed to help you grasp the "forest"—market seasonality—rather than focusing on the "trees"—short-term price fluctuations. By combining this with trend analysis from your main chart, you can formulate highly accurate trading strategies.
릴리즈 노트
Release Notes: June 28, 2026① Manual Exclusion Feature (Reliable & Safe):
Simply enter the years you wish to exclude (such as 2008—the year of the Lehman Shock—or 2020—the year of the COVID-19 shock—by default) into the "Excluded Years (comma separated)" field in the settings; those years will then be completely excluded from the average calculation.
② Visualization of Excluded Years:
Years designated for exclusion are clearly listed in a table with red text at the bottom right of the chart, allowing you to see at a glance which years are currently being excluded from the analysis (this display can also be hidden via settings).
③ "Current Asset" Off by Default:
A `show_current` flag has been added, and the setting has been configured so that the white line representing the current year is not displayed by default.
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.