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업데이트됨 Naked POC Magnetism Fill Probability & Median Wait
Naked POC Magnetism — Fill Probability & Median Wait
What it is
A naked POC is the highest-volume price of a past session that price has not revisited since. Traders treat them as magnets — but "it usually gets filled" is folklore until it's measured. This tool measures it. Every historical naked level on your chart becomes a data point (how many sessions it survived before being touched, or whether it never was), and a survival model (discrete-hazard life table) turns that history into, for each live naked level: the probability it fills within the next N sessions and the median wait. Levels are drawn with their measured magnetism, not just their location.
How the statistics work — and their honest limits
Each session's volume-at-price profile is built from that session's bars; at session close the peak-volume price (POC) becomes a naked level.
A level is filled the first time a later bar's range touches it; its age in sessions at that moment is one observation. Levels removed unfilled (history cap) are censored at their age — counted as "survived this long," never as fills. This is the standard treatment of incomplete observations from survival analysis (Kaplan–Meier 1958; classical life tables).
Hazard at age j = fills at age j ÷ levels at risk at age j. Survival multiplies (1 − hazard) across ages; fill-probability within a horizon and the median wait follow directly.
Reliability gates, enforced not footnoted: no probability is displayed until a minimum number of levels have resolved (input, default 20) — until then the tool says BUILDING and shows only counts. And hazard estimates at ages with fewer than 5 at-risk observations are truncated rather than trusted, per standard life-table convention.
Probabilities are empirical frequencies from this symbol and timeframe's own history — they change with regime and sample, and a 70% is not a promise.
Seeing the evidence
Every historical fill prints a small ◈ marker where a naked level was touched — the resolved observations the probabilities are measured from, visible on the chart rather than hidden in a table.
The dashboard shows both the NEAREST level and the STRONGEST magnet (highest fill probability) — they are often not the same level, and the strongest one is the better answer to "where is price most drawn".
An honest design note: this tool deliberately has NO multi-timeframe stack and NO state-debounce, unlike its siblings in this suite — sessions are the model's clock regardless of chart timeframe (a higher-timeframe copy would measure the same sessions with coarser bins), and nothing here chatters (levels are born at session close and resolve on touch). Features are added where they inform, not everywhere.
How to use it
Add to a liquid intraday chart; 5m–15m gives the model the most sessions to learn from. Let it run until the dashboard reads MEASURED.
Each rail is labelled like "NPOC 24512 · 68% /5s · med 3s" — the measured chance it fills within the horizon and the median sessions historically needed. Warm, saturated rails = strong magnets; faded = weak or unrated.
The dashboard shows the nearest level's read and — deliberately — the sample size behind every number.
Use magnetism as context about where price is drawn (targets, fade zones, expectations management), never as an entry signal by itself.
What makes it original
Naked-POC indicators draw lines. This one attaches a measured fill-probability and expected wait to each line, estimated with a proper survival model that handles censoring and refuses to show numbers it can't support. Turning a folklore level into a level with a live, honest statistic is the contribution.
Concept credits
Market Profile / point of control — J. Peter Steidlmayer. Naked (virgin) POC — market-profile trading literature. Survival estimation from incomplete observations — E. L. Kaplan & P. Meier (1958); classical life-table method. Implementation and charting design are the author's own.
Important disclaimer
Research and education only. Not financial advice, not a signal service, not a guarantee of future results. Fill probabilities are empirical frequencies measured on this chart's limited history. Validate independently and manage your own risk.
What it is
A naked POC is the highest-volume price of a past session that price has not revisited since. Traders treat them as magnets — but "it usually gets filled" is folklore until it's measured. This tool measures it. Every historical naked level on your chart becomes a data point (how many sessions it survived before being touched, or whether it never was), and a survival model (discrete-hazard life table) turns that history into, for each live naked level: the probability it fills within the next N sessions and the median wait. Levels are drawn with their measured magnetism, not just their location.
How the statistics work — and their honest limits
Each session's volume-at-price profile is built from that session's bars; at session close the peak-volume price (POC) becomes a naked level.
A level is filled the first time a later bar's range touches it; its age in sessions at that moment is one observation. Levels removed unfilled (history cap) are censored at their age — counted as "survived this long," never as fills. This is the standard treatment of incomplete observations from survival analysis (Kaplan–Meier 1958; classical life tables).
Hazard at age j = fills at age j ÷ levels at risk at age j. Survival multiplies (1 − hazard) across ages; fill-probability within a horizon and the median wait follow directly.
Reliability gates, enforced not footnoted: no probability is displayed until a minimum number of levels have resolved (input, default 20) — until then the tool says BUILDING and shows only counts. And hazard estimates at ages with fewer than 5 at-risk observations are truncated rather than trusted, per standard life-table convention.
Probabilities are empirical frequencies from this symbol and timeframe's own history — they change with regime and sample, and a 70% is not a promise.
Seeing the evidence
Every historical fill prints a small ◈ marker where a naked level was touched — the resolved observations the probabilities are measured from, visible on the chart rather than hidden in a table.
The dashboard shows both the NEAREST level and the STRONGEST magnet (highest fill probability) — they are often not the same level, and the strongest one is the better answer to "where is price most drawn".
An honest design note: this tool deliberately has NO multi-timeframe stack and NO state-debounce, unlike its siblings in this suite — sessions are the model's clock regardless of chart timeframe (a higher-timeframe copy would measure the same sessions with coarser bins), and nothing here chatters (levels are born at session close and resolve on touch). Features are added where they inform, not everywhere.
How to use it
Add to a liquid intraday chart; 5m–15m gives the model the most sessions to learn from. Let it run until the dashboard reads MEASURED.
Each rail is labelled like "NPOC 24512 · 68% /5s · med 3s" — the measured chance it fills within the horizon and the median sessions historically needed. Warm, saturated rails = strong magnets; faded = weak or unrated.
The dashboard shows the nearest level's read and — deliberately — the sample size behind every number.
Use magnetism as context about where price is drawn (targets, fade zones, expectations management), never as an entry signal by itself.
What makes it original
Naked-POC indicators draw lines. This one attaches a measured fill-probability and expected wait to each line, estimated with a proper survival model that handles censoring and refuses to show numbers it can't support. Turning a folklore level into a level with a live, honest statistic is the contribution.
Concept credits
Market Profile / point of control — J. Peter Steidlmayer. Naked (virgin) POC — market-profile trading literature. Survival estimation from incomplete observations — E. L. Kaplan & P. Meier (1958); classical life-table method. Implementation and charting design are the author's own.
Important disclaimer
Research and education only. Not financial advice, not a signal service, not a guarantee of future results. Fill probabilities are empirical frequencies measured on this chart's limited history. Validate independently and manage your own risk.
릴리즈 노트
Minor Update릴리즈 노트
Naked-Level Magnetism Engine v1.1: bounded probabilities and confidence-aware railsPROBABILITIES ARE BOUNDED
A fill probability is an estimate from a finite number of resolved levels. On a small sample, "68%" and "coin flip" can be the same number wearing different clothes. Every probability now carries a Greenwood 95% interval, and the lower bound is what the tool grades on.
On the choice of method: a Wilson interval would have been wrong here. Wilson is the right tool for a single binomial proportion, and this estimate is not one — it is a Kaplan-Meier product of several age-specific hazards, each with its own sampling error, computed over censored observations. Greenwood's formula is the standard variance for precisely that estimator, and the interval it gives on survival inverts directly to an interval on fill probability.
WHAT CHANGED ON THE CHART
Rails are now graded by the lower bound rather than the point estimate, so a level only looks like a strong magnet when its weakest plausible reading is still strong. A lucky average over three observations no longer paints a hot rail.
Rail width encodes confidence: a tight interval draws thick, a wide one draws thin. Uncertainty is visible at a glance without reading a number.
Labels show both figures — for example "NPOC 24310 68% (LB 41%) /5s · med 3s" — and the gap between them is the honest signal about how much the estimate can be trusted.
The STRONGEST level is now selected by lower bound, so a poorly measured level can no longer outrank a well measured one.
Both the point estimate and the lower bound are exported to the data window.
The survival model itself is unchanged: range-proportional session profiles, POC committed at session close, first-touch fills, censoring of unfilled levels, at-risk reliability floors and the minimum-sample gate all behave exactly as before.
Unchanged framing: magnetism is about where price is drawn, not when to enter. Probabilities are empirical frequencies from this symbol and timeframe's own history, not universal constants. Research and education only.
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.