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Milman's Stablecoin EWS
Milman's Stablecoin Early Warning System (EWS)
Monitors total stablecoin market cap supply dynamics as a leading indicator of crypto market capitulation. When stablecoin supply contracts — rather than growing or rotating — it signals capital is leaving the crypto ecosystem entirely, not just rotating to safety. Historically, this has preceded major capitulation events by days to weeks.
The indicator tracks three escalating warning stages:
Stage 1 (Yellow) — Supply growth rate slowing. Earliest signal, potentially months of lead time. Mirrors the 2021 pattern where growth decelerated months before the actual market top.
Stage 2 (Orange) — Active contraction confirmed. ROC crosses below the contraction threshold. Mirrors the 2018 pattern where USDT contraction gave approximately one month of warning before capitulation.
Stage 3 / Critical (Red + Triangle) — Supply prints a new lower low below the recent swing range. Per the 2022 LUNA precedent, capitulation followed within days of this signal firing.
Additional signals: Blue diamonds mark instances where USDC supply leads USDT into a lower low — the pattern observed in 2022 where USDC warned before the broader collapse. A purple background indicates BTC is simultaneously trading below its 100-week moving average, the highest-confidence confluence condition.
Settings
Parameter -- Default -- Description
ROC Period -- 7 days -- Lookback for rate-of-change calculation
Lower Low Lookback -- 30 days -- Window for Stage 3 swing low detection
Z-Score Lookback -- 90 days -- Normalization window for the main signal line
Stage 1 ROC Threshold -- -0.3% -- Growth slowing trigger
Stage 2 ROC Threshold-- -1.5% -- Active contraction trigger
BTC 100W MA Highlight -- On -- Purple background when BTC below 100-week MA
Show USDT/USDC Split -- On -- Plots individual stablecoin ROC lines
Notes
Best used as confluence alongside existing market structure analysis. Signals are most reliable on the daily timeframe. Historical data prior to 2020 is limited by stablecoin market size and data availability. Not financial advice.
Inspired by analysis from Blockchain Backer's January 2026 newsletter on stablecoin supply dynamics.
Monitors total stablecoin market cap supply dynamics as a leading indicator of crypto market capitulation. When stablecoin supply contracts — rather than growing or rotating — it signals capital is leaving the crypto ecosystem entirely, not just rotating to safety. Historically, this has preceded major capitulation events by days to weeks.
The indicator tracks three escalating warning stages:
Stage 1 (Yellow) — Supply growth rate slowing. Earliest signal, potentially months of lead time. Mirrors the 2021 pattern where growth decelerated months before the actual market top.
Stage 2 (Orange) — Active contraction confirmed. ROC crosses below the contraction threshold. Mirrors the 2018 pattern where USDT contraction gave approximately one month of warning before capitulation.
Stage 3 / Critical (Red + Triangle) — Supply prints a new lower low below the recent swing range. Per the 2022 LUNA precedent, capitulation followed within days of this signal firing.
Additional signals: Blue diamonds mark instances where USDC supply leads USDT into a lower low — the pattern observed in 2022 where USDC warned before the broader collapse. A purple background indicates BTC is simultaneously trading below its 100-week moving average, the highest-confidence confluence condition.
Settings
Parameter -- Default -- Description
ROC Period -- 7 days -- Lookback for rate-of-change calculation
Lower Low Lookback -- 30 days -- Window for Stage 3 swing low detection
Z-Score Lookback -- 90 days -- Normalization window for the main signal line
Stage 1 ROC Threshold -- -0.3% -- Growth slowing trigger
Stage 2 ROC Threshold-- -1.5% -- Active contraction trigger
BTC 100W MA Highlight -- On -- Purple background when BTC below 100-week MA
Show USDT/USDC Split -- On -- Plots individual stablecoin ROC lines
Notes
Best used as confluence alongside existing market structure analysis. Signals are most reliable on the daily timeframe. Historical data prior to 2020 is limited by stablecoin market size and data availability. Not financial advice.
Inspired by analysis from Blockchain Backer's January 2026 newsletter on stablecoin supply dynamics.
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.