OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
CTZ BTC ULTIMATE CYCLE [Fused+Simplified]
**CTZ BTC ULTIMATE CYCLE v3 — Description & How to Trade**
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**WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES**
CTZ BTC Ultimate Cycle v3 tracks Bitcoin's four natural market cycles simultaneously — the Daily Cycle Low (DCL), Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL), Yearly Cycle Low (YCL), and Four-Year Cycle Low (4YCL). Every BTC rally and correction follows rhythmic, repeating patterns. This script identifies those patterns in real time, marks where you currently are inside each cycle, projects where the next low is likely to land, and rates the quality of every signal with a confidence score.
Built on the Cycle Theory methodology (Loukas / CTZ framework), fused and simplified into a single overlay with one master sensitivity control instead of 20+ raw inputs.
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**THE FOUR CYCLES**
🟢 DCL — Daily Cycle Low (~20–30 bars)
The smallest repeating rhythm. Used for short-term entry timing. Buy near the expected low, exit toward the subsequent cycle high.
🔵 ICL — Intermediate Cycle Low (~60–80 bars)
The bread-and-butter swing cycle. Contains 2–4 DCLs. Entries near an ICL low typically produce 20–50% moves before the next ICL arrives.
🟡 YCL — Yearly Cycle Low (~250–365 bars)
The annual rhythm. Contains 3–5 ICLs. YCL lows are major accumulation zones — deeper drawdowns that shake out weak hands before sustained runs.
🟣 4YCL — Four-Year Cycle Low (~900–1458 bars)
Bitcoin's dominant macro cycle, aligned with the halving cadence. A confirmed 4YCL is the highest-conviction long entry the indicator produces.
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**WHAT YOU SEE ON THE CHART**
• Cycle low labels — DCL / ICL / YCL / 4YCL printed below each confirmed pivot, with a star rating (★★★★★) showing signal confidence
• Confidence stars — 1 to 5 stars based on RSI divergence, MACD divergence, above-average volume, cycle regularity, and right translation
• Projection boxes — shaded zones to the right showing the expected timing and price range of the next DCL and ICL low
• Invalidation lines — dotted lines at the prior cycle low price (DCL INV / ICL INV). A daily close below these levels means the cycle count has failed
• Translation label — LEFT / MID / RIGHT showing where the cycle high printed relative to the midpoint. Right = bullish. Left = bearish
• MA Breakout — a 10-bar MA re-cross confirmation after price dips below it. Confirms the cycle low is likely in
• ⚡ Cycle Sync — when a projected DCL and ICL converge within ±4 bars. These aligned lows tend to produce stronger reversals
• ⛔ Cycle Fail — printed in bull markets when a new low undercuts the prior cycle low (a genuine warning). In bear markets the same event prints a muted "Bear ↓" label instead — because undercutting is expected behaviour in a downtrend
• Status label — plain-English line on the chart: current cycle day, countdown to next low, translation, MA status, and zone alerts
• Dashboard (top right) — 3 sections: WHERE ARE WE (progress bars for all four cycles), WHAT TO WATCH (countdowns, zones, invalidation levels, sync), SIGNAL QUALITY (stars, divergence, regularity, failure risk)
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**CYCLE HEALTH TRAFFIC LIGHT**
The very first thing in the dashboard is a single traffic light — the overall Cycle Health.
🟢 HEALTHY — Right-translated, MA confirmed, no failure risk. Trend is with you.
🟡 NEUTRAL — Mixed signals or approaching a timing window. Reduce size, watch closely.
🔴 CAUTION — Left-translated, overdue cycle, or price near the invalidation level. Be defensive.
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**HOW TO TRADE IT**
Step 1 — Check the Regime
Read the Regime row in the dashboard. BULL = cycle failures are meaningful warnings. BEAR = lower lows are normal, don't buy Bear ↓ labels expecting a reversal.
Step 2 — Read the bigger cycles first
Check YCL and 4YCL progress. If either is overdue (progress bar over 100%, shown in red), a major low may be forming. Don't trade DCLs aggressively against an overdue YCL.
Step 3 — Wait for the projection zone
The dashboard shows ⚡ IN ZONE when price enters the expected timing window. This is not a buy signal on its own — it means the low could arrive now. Reduce size and start watching for confirmation.
Step 4 — Confirm with MA Breakout + stars
Once a cycle low label prints, wait for the 10-MA re-cross (dashboard shows ✓ MA Break). Only trade 4–5 star setups at ICL or YCL timeframes for highest-probability entries.
Step 5 — Place your stop below the invalidation line
The DCL INV and ICL INV dotted lines mark the price level that must hold. A daily close below either line means the cycle count is invalid — exit the trade.
Step 6 — Exit into the next projected high
Take partial profits when cycle progress approaches 80–90% of the expected length. Full exit before an ICL is due if translation is shifting left or a ⛔ Fail label appears on a smaller cycle within the current run.
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**SETTINGS**
Sensitivity — Low / Medium / High
• Low: fewer signals, stronger pivots only. Best for clean, rare setups.
• Medium (default): balanced. Works well on the daily BTC chart.
• High: catches more lows including early ones. More signals, more noise.
Individual cycle toggles let you show/hide DCL, ICL, YCL, and 4YCL independently. Colours, alerts, projection boxes, the phase ribbon, and the status label are all separately toggleable.
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**ALERTS INCLUDED**
• High-conviction DCL (RSI + MACD divergence confirmed)
• Cycle failure (bull market context only)
• Cycle sync imminent (DCL + ICL converging)
• Price entering projection zone
• MA breakout confirmed
• Webhook-ready alertconditions for DCL / ICL / YCL / 4YCL detection
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**RECOMMENDED TIMEFRAME**
Daily chart, BTCUSD or BTCUSDT. The cycle lengths are calibrated specifically for Bitcoin's daily rhythm. Lower timeframes will produce noise; weekly is too slow to catch DCLs meaningfully.
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**COMMON MISTAKES**
✖ Buying a Bear ↓ label as if it were a bullish entry — it is an expected continuation, not a reversal
✖ Entering before the MA breakout is confirmed — the low may not be in yet
✖ Trading DCLs when Cycle Health is red — you are fighting the dominant trend
✖ Holding through an ICL when translation has already shifted left — the cycle is weakening and lower lows are likely
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.