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EMA Distance Zone Move Matrix

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This indicator answers one of the most practical questions in trading: "When price is X% away from the EMA, how likely is it to move at least Y% from that point?"
It builds a live probability matrix from historical data — no repainting, no predictions — just raw statistics from how price has actually behaved.

How It Works
The indicator measures the percentage distance between price and a selected EMA at every bar. It then groups historical bars into user-defined zones (e.g. "price is 3–5% above EMA") and tracks how often price made a significant move after entering each zone.
Example read:
If the 3 to 5% zone shows ▲≥5%: 62.3% — that means 62.3% of the time, after price entered that zone, it subsequently rallied at least 5% from the entry price within the tracking window.

Settings
EMA

EMA Length — period of the EMA (default: 20)
EMA Timeframe — use the chart timeframe or any higher timeframe
Lookback Bars — how many historical bars to analyse (default: 1000)
Bars to Track — how many bars after zone entry to watch for the move (default: 50)

From Zones (Rows) — 8 zones, each with:

Enable/disable toggle
Lo% and Hi% — the EMA distance band (supports negative values for below-EMA zones)
Label — custom name shown in the table row

Move Thresholds (Columns) — 10 thresholds, each with:

Enable/disable toggle
Direction — ▲ Up (price rises), ▼ Down (price falls), ↕ Either (either direction)
≥ % — minimum move size to count as a hit

Display

Show % or raw count
Heatmap color mode
Table position and text size


The Matrix Table
Rows = FROM zones (where price was when it entered)
Columns = move thresholds (how far it moved after)
Last column = total number of visits to that zone
Each cell shows the probability (%) or count of times price achieved that move after entering that zone.
Color coding (heatmap mode):

Red — highest probability (≥75% of max)
Orange — high (50–75%)
Yellow — moderate (25–50%)
Teal — low (below 25%)
Gray — zero / no data

Column headers are color-coded by direction:

Teal = Up move ▲
Red = Down move ▼
Purple = Either direction ↕

The footer row shows the currently active zone and the indicator settings summary.

Chart Background
The chart background is lightly shaded to show which zone price is currently in — making it easy to spot your current EMA distance zone at a glance without looking at the table.

Use Cases

Find which EMA distance zones historically lead to strong reversals or continuations
Identify asymmetric zones where up-move probability is much higher than down
Compare behavior at oversold vs overbought EMA distances
Build mean-reversion or momentum setups backed by historical statistics
Use with any EMA (20, 50, 100, 200) on any timeframe


Notes

overlay=true — draws directly on the main chart, no separate pane needed
A move is counted once per zone visit per threshold (first time it's hit within the tracking window)
Works on any instrument: stocks, crypto, forex, futures, indices
The matrix updates live on every bar — no need to refresh
Use a lookback of at least 500 bars for statistically meaningful results
Ensure the chart timeframe has enough history to cover the lookback window


Settings Quick Start (recommended defaults):
Zones: -10 to -5 · -5 to -3 · -3 to 0 · 0 to 3 · 3 to 5 · 5 to 10
Moves: ▲≥1% · ▲≥2% · ▲≥5% · ▲≥10% · ▼≥1% · ▼≥2% · ▼≥5% · ▼≥10%
Lookback: 1000 · Track window: 50 bars

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