OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
업데이트됨 True Seasonal Probability Map
True Seasonal Probability Map is a weekly seasonal analysis tool for 1W charts.
The script combines two related seasonal views:
1. True Seasonal Curve
The curve groups historical weekly price changes by calendar week and builds a normalized seasonal path. Users can choose the lookback period, smoothing, detrending, and normalization mode. The curve helps visualize how the selected market has tended to move through the calendar year.
2. Bernstein Weekly Probability Map
The weekly boxes show the historical percentage of positive closes for each calendar week. The Bernstein lookback can be set independently from the seasonal curve, using maximum available data, 30 years, 15 years, or a custom value. This allows users to compare a shorter seasonal regime with a broader long-term probability sample.
The weekly boxes are aligned with the chart timeline. Boxes for the current year align with the corresponding weekly candles, while future boxes extend to the right of the current bar to show upcoming calendar weeks. Green indicates a positive historical bias, red indicates a negative historical bias, and neutral colors indicate a more balanced probability zone.
A configurable average window highlights the current week plus the next selected number of weeks. By default, the box shows a 6-week average including the current week. The average value is displayed inside the highlighted period.
Main settings:
- True Seasonal Years: lookback used for the seasonal curve.
- Bernstein Lookback: lookback used for weekly probability calculations.
- Line Color Source: choose whether the seasonal curve colors follow Bernstein probabilities or the True Seasonal probability calculation.
- Bernstein Future Weeks: number of future weekly probability boxes to display.
- Current Avg Weeks: number of weeks included in the highlighted average window.
- Reliability %: threshold used to classify stronger bullish or bearish probability zones.
This indicator does not generate buy or sell signals. It is intended as a seasonal context tool. Historical seasonal tendencies and weekly positive-close probabilities do not predict future results. Use this tool together with market structure, trend, volatility, liquidity, macro context, and risk management.
The script combines two related seasonal views:
1. True Seasonal Curve
The curve groups historical weekly price changes by calendar week and builds a normalized seasonal path. Users can choose the lookback period, smoothing, detrending, and normalization mode. The curve helps visualize how the selected market has tended to move through the calendar year.
2. Bernstein Weekly Probability Map
The weekly boxes show the historical percentage of positive closes for each calendar week. The Bernstein lookback can be set independently from the seasonal curve, using maximum available data, 30 years, 15 years, or a custom value. This allows users to compare a shorter seasonal regime with a broader long-term probability sample.
The weekly boxes are aligned with the chart timeline. Boxes for the current year align with the corresponding weekly candles, while future boxes extend to the right of the current bar to show upcoming calendar weeks. Green indicates a positive historical bias, red indicates a negative historical bias, and neutral colors indicate a more balanced probability zone.
A configurable average window highlights the current week plus the next selected number of weeks. By default, the box shows a 6-week average including the current week. The average value is displayed inside the highlighted period.
Main settings:
- True Seasonal Years: lookback used for the seasonal curve.
- Bernstein Lookback: lookback used for weekly probability calculations.
- Line Color Source: choose whether the seasonal curve colors follow Bernstein probabilities or the True Seasonal probability calculation.
- Bernstein Future Weeks: number of future weekly probability boxes to display.
- Current Avg Weeks: number of weeks included in the highlighted average window.
- Reliability %: threshold used to classify stronger bullish or bearish probability zones.
This indicator does not generate buy or sell signals. It is intended as a seasonal context tool. Historical seasonal tendencies and weekly positive-close probabilities do not predict future results. Use this tool together with market structure, trend, volatility, liquidity, macro context, and risk management.
릴리즈 노트
UpdateThis update adds several improvements to the existing weekly seasonal framework.
The Bernstein weekly boxes were improved so that projected future boxes are aligned on the calendar timeline. A new option can extend the future weekly boxes through the end of the current calendar year.
A compact statistics table was added. It shows the current calendar week, the selected multi-week seasonal window, monthly seasonality, and the current trading day of the month.
Monthly seasonality is now available as a table statistic. It can be calculated either from weekly bars assigned to their calendar month or from full calendar-month changes.
Trading-Day-of-Month statistics were added. The script uses daily bars inside the weekly chart to count the current trading day of the month and evaluate historical TDM tendencies. TDM can be calculated for the current calendar month or across all months. Month-specific TDM rows are only shown when the required sample count is available.
The table was also cleaned up visually. Monthly background shading was removed, table backgrounds are neutral, and unnecessary hidden plot outputs were removed from the Style tab.
The indicator remains a seasonal context tool and does not generate buy or sell signals. Historical seasonal tendencies and probability statistics do not guarantee future results.
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.