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Mutual Info Decoupler [forexobroker]

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Mutual Info Decoupler measures the information-theoretic dependence between price returns and volume over a rolling window. High MI = price moves explained by volume (informed flow). Low MI = price and volume decoupled (noise). Signals fire on EMA cross within a coupled regime, where the move is statistically grounded.

🔶 ALGORITHM

1. Bin returns into 3 quantile classes (low / mid / high) using +/- 0.5 sigma boundaries.
2. Bin volume into 3 classes (low / mid / high) using volume_avg * 0.7 and 1.3 boundaries.
3. Build 3x3 joint count matrix; derive marginals P(r) and P(v).
4. MI = sum_{r,v} P(r,v) * log( P(r,v) / (P(r) * P(v)) ) in nats.
5. Coupled regime when MI >= threshold.

🔶 SIGNAL LOGIC

- Buy: coupled AND close > SMA AND close crosses EMA up AND not already long AND cooldown elapsed AND barstate.isconfirmed.
- Sell: coupled AND close < SMA AND close crosses EMA down.
- Position-lock state machine.

🔶 INPUTS

- MI Window (default 60)
- Pullback EMA Length (default 8)
- Min MI (default 0.05 nats)
- Cooldown Bars (default 4)
- Visual: dashboard, glow, EMA toggle, buy / sell colors

🔶 ALERTS

MID Buy, MID Sell, MID Any Signal, MID Coupled On, MID Coupled Off, MID High MI, MID Cross Up, MID Cross Down, MID Webhook JSON.

🔶 LIMITATIONS

- 3x3 binning is coarse; finer resolution needs much more history to avoid empty cells.
- Forex tick volume is broker-aggregated and noisy; instruments with reliable volume produce more meaningful MI.
- MI is symmetric and dimension-free but does not tell direction; directional gating uses SMA bias.
- Window N = 60 is a balance between estimator stability and adaptiveness; longer windows produce smoother MI but slower regime detection.

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