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Silver Risk Management outperformed Buy & Hold

12 692
This strategy starts from a very direct idea

Stay long silver by default
step aside when risk starts to build
and step back in when structure and macro conditions calm down

Silver can reward patience, but it also has a habit of violent flushes

That is why this model does not try to predict every move
It only tries to manage exposure when pressure becomes visible

The model uses three layers
1. Silver structure
A slow EMA helps identify broader trend damage
2. Macro pressure
US10Y stress is used as the main macro exit filter
3. Flush protection
Large downside moves and volatility shocks can trigger an exit or delay re entry

The strategy also includes its own Buy and Hold benchmark from the same start date
That keeps the comparison cleaner than relying only on TradingView’s default Buy and Hold line

With the current conservative test settings

Commission: 0.10%
Slippage: 2
Start date: 2021 01 01
Benchmark start: first available daily bar after that date

The backtest currently shows the strategy outperforming its own Buy and Hold benchmark by 147% points

Strategy return: 326%
Own Buy and Hold: 179%
Max equity drawdown: 16%
Profit factor: 3.7
Total trades: 37

The goal is not to prove that silver can be timed perfectly

The goal is to study whether silver’s violent flushes create more room for risk managed exposure than passive holding

This is a backtest and research tool

It is not a buy or sell signal
and it is not financial advice

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