OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Crisis indicator
What This Indicator Does
This indicator acts as an early warning system for potential market crises by tracking 5 of the most reliable financial danger signals that have predicted major market declines throughout history.
The 5 Crisis Signals Monitored
1. Yield Curve Inversion
- What it measures: When short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates
- Why it matters: This has predicted every US recession since 1955
- Trigger: Yield curve drops below your set threshold (default: 0.0)
2. Shiller CAPE Ratio
- What it measures: Stock market valuation adjusted for economic cycles
- Why it matters: Only exceeded 30 during major bubbles (1929, 2000, 2021) - all followed by crashes
- Trigger: CAPE ratio rises above your threshold (default: 30.0)
3. Buffett Indicator
- What it measures: Total stock market value compared to GDP
- Why it matters: Warren Buffett's favorite market valuation gauge
- Trigger: Ratio exceeds your threshold (default: 180%)
4. VIX Complacency
- What it measures: Market fear gauge (Volatility Index)
- Why it matters: Extremely low VIX indicates investor complacency before storms
- Trigger: VIX falls below your threshold (default: 15.0)
5. SPX Extreme Deviation
- What it measures: How far S&P 500 is above its 200-week moving average
- Why it matters: Major tops in 1929, 2000, 2021 all showed extreme deviations
- Trigger: Deviation exceeds your threshold (default: 2.8 standard deviations)
How to Read the Results
The Yellow Line (0-5 Scale)
- Shows how many of the 5 danger signals are currently active
- 0-1: Normal market conditions
- 2: High Risk - Caution advised
- 3+: Crisis Cluster - High probability of market decline
The Information Table
- Shows exactly which signals are triggering
- Displays current values for each indicator
- Color-coded status (Green = Safe, Red = Danger)
Historical Performance
When 3+ indicators flash simultaneously:
- 1999-2000: Preceded Dot-com crash (-49% SPX)
- 2007: Preceded Financial Crisis (-57% SPX)
- 2021: Preceded 2022 bear market (-25% SPX)
This indicator acts as an early warning system for potential market crises by tracking 5 of the most reliable financial danger signals that have predicted major market declines throughout history.
The 5 Crisis Signals Monitored
1. Yield Curve Inversion
- What it measures: When short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates
- Why it matters: This has predicted every US recession since 1955
- Trigger: Yield curve drops below your set threshold (default: 0.0)
2. Shiller CAPE Ratio
- What it measures: Stock market valuation adjusted for economic cycles
- Why it matters: Only exceeded 30 during major bubbles (1929, 2000, 2021) - all followed by crashes
- Trigger: CAPE ratio rises above your threshold (default: 30.0)
3. Buffett Indicator
- What it measures: Total stock market value compared to GDP
- Why it matters: Warren Buffett's favorite market valuation gauge
- Trigger: Ratio exceeds your threshold (default: 180%)
4. VIX Complacency
- What it measures: Market fear gauge (Volatility Index)
- Why it matters: Extremely low VIX indicates investor complacency before storms
- Trigger: VIX falls below your threshold (default: 15.0)
5. SPX Extreme Deviation
- What it measures: How far S&P 500 is above its 200-week moving average
- Why it matters: Major tops in 1929, 2000, 2021 all showed extreme deviations
- Trigger: Deviation exceeds your threshold (default: 2.8 standard deviations)
How to Read the Results
The Yellow Line (0-5 Scale)
- Shows how many of the 5 danger signals are currently active
- 0-1: Normal market conditions
- 2: High Risk - Caution advised
- 3+: Crisis Cluster - High probability of market decline
The Information Table
- Shows exactly which signals are triggering
- Displays current values for each indicator
- Color-coded status (Green = Safe, Red = Danger)
Historical Performance
When 3+ indicators flash simultaneously:
- 1999-2000: Preceded Dot-com crash (-49% SPX)
- 2007: Preceded Financial Crisis (-57% SPX)
- 2021: Preceded 2022 bear market (-25% SPX)
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
오픈 소스 스크립트
트레이딩뷰의 진정한 정신에 따라, 이 스크립트의 작성자는 이를 오픈소스로 공개하여 트레이더들이 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 이 코드는 무료로 사용할 수 있지만, 코드를 재게시하는 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.