BABA, Alibaba, 1W / 1D
(AI summary of my analysis)
China internet has quietly started to turn up this week (KWEB, MCHI, FXI all curling higher on relative strength for the first time in a while). BABA is the name I want inside that. This is an early one, so I'm treating it like a probe, not a conviction long.
The setup:
- Fresh 52-week low, one week of consolidation, and now a big thrust week. Daily is up double digits on the heaviest volume in months and reclaimed the 21 EMA and 10 SMA. Weekly reclaimed the 200-week line and stochastics are buried and just starting to curl.
- Not extended. Price is still sitting a couple ATRs below the 50-day, so there's room to run into resistance rather than chasing something that already went vertical off the MAs.
What I'm watching:
- 117.90 is the first shelf, and then 120 to 128 is the real wall (declining 50-day plus the weekly cloud base). That whole zone is stuffed with trapped supply from the slide down from 148. First push into it probably stalls.
- I want to see it clear 117.90 and hold, with MACD actually crossing up instead of just getting less negative. That's when I'd add.
Risk:
- Stop under the 21 EMA reclaim, roughly 104 to 105. Lose that and the thrust failed, no argument. Risk is about $4-5 per share, small.
- Wider structural line is 98, and the whole thing is dead if it takes out the 90 low.
Caution:
- This is still a countertrend trade. Below a falling 50 and 200 day, MACD hasn't turned, and it's the first bounce off a new low. Those retest or base more often than they V straight up. The theme turn is only one week old too.
- So it's early and the risk is defined and small, which is exactly why I like it here. Starter now, add if China's second week confirms and 117.90 gives way. If it can't hold the 21 EMA, I'm out cheap and I wait for the base.
Not advice, just how I'm playing it.
(AI summary of my analysis)
China internet has quietly started to turn up this week (KWEB, MCHI, FXI all curling higher on relative strength for the first time in a while). BABA is the name I want inside that. This is an early one, so I'm treating it like a probe, not a conviction long.
The setup:
- Fresh 52-week low, one week of consolidation, and now a big thrust week. Daily is up double digits on the heaviest volume in months and reclaimed the 21 EMA and 10 SMA. Weekly reclaimed the 200-week line and stochastics are buried and just starting to curl.
- Not extended. Price is still sitting a couple ATRs below the 50-day, so there's room to run into resistance rather than chasing something that already went vertical off the MAs.
What I'm watching:
- 117.90 is the first shelf, and then 120 to 128 is the real wall (declining 50-day plus the weekly cloud base). That whole zone is stuffed with trapped supply from the slide down from 148. First push into it probably stalls.
- I want to see it clear 117.90 and hold, with MACD actually crossing up instead of just getting less negative. That's when I'd add.
Risk:
- Stop under the 21 EMA reclaim, roughly 104 to 105. Lose that and the thrust failed, no argument. Risk is about $4-5 per share, small.
- Wider structural line is 98, and the whole thing is dead if it takes out the 90 low.
Caution:
- This is still a countertrend trade. Below a falling 50 and 200 day, MACD hasn't turned, and it's the first bounce off a new low. Those retest or base more often than they V straight up. The theme turn is only one week old too.
- So it's early and the risk is defined and small, which is exactly why I like it here. Starter now, add if China's second week confirms and 117.90 gives way. If it can't hold the 21 EMA, I'm out cheap and I wait for the base.
Not advice, just how I'm playing it.
Nota
My typical way to play this is to buy at 21ema when it pulls back to it, which gives an even tighter, lower risk entry. For now, I will live with my entry at 109.48, but won't be surprised if this now requires weeks of consolidation. Hope not. Nota
First shelf at 117.9 hit and now BABA is running into resistance at 50-day. Broad market (see analysis on Substack or Twitter) has not been cooperating or easy, so I will take off just a tiny but of this trade here. Nota
AMZN is struggling to gain any momentum, as are most stocks. This one is important to help BABA along, and per my nots on other platforms (Reddit, Twitter, Substack), the macro situation isn't lending any help. Still, some profits have been captured already and position sizing is reduced. Also easily outperforming the AI trade, where I would've been stopped out a week ago.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.