🔴 MSFT Short — Breaking Below the $390 Pivot
🔴 Side: SHORT
💰 Entry: $389
🛑 Stop: $395.20
🎯 Target: $382.50
⚖️ R:R: 1.05
⭐ Confidence: 4/5
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🔍 Thesis
Microsoft is breaking below the $390 structural pivot after a sustained downtrend from $540. Every bounce since February has been shallower — sellers are in control and buyers are exhausted.
📉 Price Action
- HTF (4h): Persistent downtrend — lower highs, lower lows since Oct 2025. The Feb gap-down shifted MSFT into a weaker structure with no recovery
- LTF (1h): Stair-step selling from $413 → $405 → $399 → $395 → $389. Each bounce gets sold from a lower level. Volume expanding on red candles
- $390 was support, now resistance — polarity flip confirmed
🎯 Key Levels
- Resistance: $390 (broken pivot), $395-400 (supply zone)
- Support: $382.50 (target — late Feb swing lows), $380 (psychological)
📋 Options Flow
- 🐻 Net bearish — -$1.1M sentiment
- 📊 Bearish premium: $2.45M vs bullish $1.33M
- 🔑 Heavy put buying on $387.50P and $390P strikes
- 📉 Calls sold on bid across $390-395 = institutional distribution
💡 Trade Plan
Stock: Short at $389, stop above $395.20, target $382.50
Options: Apr 10 $390/$380 Put Spread
- Buy $390P @ $9.95, Sell $380P @ $6.28
- Max risk: ~$368 | Max gain: ~$633
- Breakeven: $386.33
⚠️ Risk
- Broad market bounce / risk-on rally could squeeze
- Invalidated above $395.20 (back inside prior range)
- MSFT is a mega-cap — moves can be slow, patience required
🔴 Side: SHORT
💰 Entry: $389
🛑 Stop: $395.20
🎯 Target: $382.50
⚖️ R:R: 1.05
⭐ Confidence: 4/5
---
🔍 Thesis
Microsoft is breaking below the $390 structural pivot after a sustained downtrend from $540. Every bounce since February has been shallower — sellers are in control and buyers are exhausted.
📉 Price Action
- HTF (4h): Persistent downtrend — lower highs, lower lows since Oct 2025. The Feb gap-down shifted MSFT into a weaker structure with no recovery
- LTF (1h): Stair-step selling from $413 → $405 → $399 → $395 → $389. Each bounce gets sold from a lower level. Volume expanding on red candles
- $390 was support, now resistance — polarity flip confirmed
🎯 Key Levels
- Resistance: $390 (broken pivot), $395-400 (supply zone)
- Support: $382.50 (target — late Feb swing lows), $380 (psychological)
📋 Options Flow
- 🐻 Net bearish — -$1.1M sentiment
- 📊 Bearish premium: $2.45M vs bullish $1.33M
- 🔑 Heavy put buying on $387.50P and $390P strikes
- 📉 Calls sold on bid across $390-395 = institutional distribution
💡 Trade Plan
Stock: Short at $389, stop above $395.20, target $382.50
Options: Apr 10 $390/$380 Put Spread
- Buy $390P @ $9.95, Sell $380P @ $6.28
- Max risk: ~$368 | Max gain: ~$633
- Breakeven: $386.33
⚠️ Risk
- Broad market bounce / risk-on rally could squeeze
- Invalidated above $395.20 (back inside prior range)
- MSFT is a mega-cap — moves can be slow, patience required
monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.