Nifty Holds Firm Amid Global Risks. Can the Rally Continue?

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The Indian market continued its steady recovery for the second consecutive week.

The Nifty 50 gained nearly 0.74%, closing at 24,176.

At the same time, volatility cooled sharply.

India VIX declined by almost 8.8% to settle near 16.84, signalling that panic in the market has eased for now.

But despite the positive close, the bigger picture remains interesting.

The Market Is Moving, But Not Exploding

Over the past two weeks, Nifty has mostly moved within a narrow range.

This tells us one thing:

The market is currently in a consolidation phase, not a strong breakout phase.

However, there is one encouraging sign.

Every dip toward the 23,800 – 23,900 zone is getting bought into quickly.

That suggests buyers are slowly building a base around these levels.

Key Levels to Watch This Week

On the Upside
🔹 24,200 – 24,300 remains the first hurdle
🔹 24,400 – 24,500 is the major resistance zone

A sustained move above these levels could strengthen bullish momentum further.

On the Downside
🔹 24,000 – 23,900 acts as immediate support
🔹 23,500 – 23,400 remains a strong base for the broader trend

As long as the index stays above these zones, the overall structure remains stable.

What Could Move the Market Next?

Several major triggers could decide the market’s next direction this week.

1. Q4 Earnings Season

More than 400 companies are set to announce quarterly results in the coming days.

Strong earnings could support the ongoing recovery, while weak guidance may create sector-specific pressure.

2. US-Iran Tensions

Global markets are also closely tracking rising tensions in West Asia.

Concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and geopolitical uncertainty continue to keep investors cautious.

3. Crude Oil Prices

Brent crude oil remains highly sensitive to developments between the U.S. and Iran.

Any sharp rise in oil prices could impact inflation expectations and market sentiment.

Outlook

The broader structure still remains sideways to positive.

If global conditions remain stable, Nifty may gradually move toward the 24,300 – 24,500 zone in the near term.

Strategy for Traders

This may not be the best environment for aggressive index chasing.

Instead, the smarter approach could be:

✔ Focusing on stocks showing strong bullish momentum
✔ Maintaining strict risk management
✔ Avoiding overexposure during consolidation phases

Because in a sideways market, stock selection often matters more than index direction.

Penafian

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