Eight months of grinding lower since that January top near 1,600, and the whole thing has drawn itself into a textbook falling wedge. The range has squeezed from roughly 290 points down to about 95. We are at the apex. Something has to give. ⏳
🎯 The pivot story just got better. With the full yearly CPR on the chart, price has been trading below the entire 2026 value area all year. TC sits at 1,496.3, P at 1,422.2, BC at 1,348.1. Below that, L4 at 1,313.9 broke in February and capped the stock for six months. Today price is back above it at 1,326.4.
🔗 And look at the cluster overhead. Upper wedge rail, Weekly High at 1,345.9, and yearly BC at 1,348.1 are all sitting within three points of each other. Three separate frameworks stacked on one number. Clearing it does not just break a wedge, it puts price back inside the yearly value area for the first time since January. Downside is just as clean: Weekly Low 1,249.8 rests on the lower rail.
📈 Volume, now that it is on: participation dried up steadily through the wedge, which is exactly what you want to see into an apex. Today's bar is already running warm with most of the session still ahead. That is a hint, not a confirmation. The bar that matters is the breakout candle itself, and it needs to close above the recent average or the whole thing is suspect.
📉 RSI: February to June gave a lower low in price against a higher low in RSI, roughly 29 up to 39. Four months of quiet divergence. RSI is now leaning on its own falling trendline from May around 53 to 55, holding above the midline through the base.
🚀 Long trigger: daily close above 1,348. One candle breaks the wedge, takes the weekly high, reclaims yearly BC and snaps the RSI trendline together.
🎯 Targets: 1,422 (yearly P), then 1,496 (TC), then 1,564 (CP), and the measured move lands almost exactly on yearly H5 at 1,627.5. That last one is a nice piece of geometry.
🛑 Invalidation: daily close below 1,250. Reopens the 1,200 handle.
😴 In between? Nothing. The apex is a coin flip by design. Trade the break, not the boredom.
⚠️ Earnings land inside the breakout window, so size for a gap.
Educational analysis, not investment advice. Manage your own risk. 🙏
🎯 The pivot story just got better. With the full yearly CPR on the chart, price has been trading below the entire 2026 value area all year. TC sits at 1,496.3, P at 1,422.2, BC at 1,348.1. Below that, L4 at 1,313.9 broke in February and capped the stock for six months. Today price is back above it at 1,326.4.
🔗 And look at the cluster overhead. Upper wedge rail, Weekly High at 1,345.9, and yearly BC at 1,348.1 are all sitting within three points of each other. Three separate frameworks stacked on one number. Clearing it does not just break a wedge, it puts price back inside the yearly value area for the first time since January. Downside is just as clean: Weekly Low 1,249.8 rests on the lower rail.
📈 Volume, now that it is on: participation dried up steadily through the wedge, which is exactly what you want to see into an apex. Today's bar is already running warm with most of the session still ahead. That is a hint, not a confirmation. The bar that matters is the breakout candle itself, and it needs to close above the recent average or the whole thing is suspect.
📉 RSI: February to June gave a lower low in price against a higher low in RSI, roughly 29 up to 39. Four months of quiet divergence. RSI is now leaning on its own falling trendline from May around 53 to 55, holding above the midline through the base.
🚀 Long trigger: daily close above 1,348. One candle breaks the wedge, takes the weekly high, reclaims yearly BC and snaps the RSI trendline together.
🎯 Targets: 1,422 (yearly P), then 1,496 (TC), then 1,564 (CP), and the measured move lands almost exactly on yearly H5 at 1,627.5. That last one is a nice piece of geometry.
🛑 Invalidation: daily close below 1,250. Reopens the 1,200 handle.
😴 In between? Nothing. The apex is a coin flip by design. Trade the break, not the boredom.
⚠️ Earnings land inside the breakout window, so size for a gap.
Educational analysis, not investment advice. Manage your own risk. 🙏
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.