RIOT: Breakout or breakdown next?

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RIOT has been on a sideways journey for the past couple of months. The patterns look very similar to what happened between October of last year to March of this year. It created slight lower lows back then, almost a descending triangle pattern, but instead of breaking down, the price had a breakout. If we are seeing the same or similar pattern right now, then this sideways action is most likely not over yet.

Looking at daily MACD, the price is struggling to gain momentum. Histogram is creating higher highs while price is creating lower highs. The MACD line is still not very strong above 0. If it breaks down again, we should see the correction to continue. Question would be if it will hold support and create a launching pad for price breakout like the last time or if a lot more pain in the future of the bag holders.

EW perspective, the correction could be over already. There is a clear 5 waves move up and that move is being corrected at the moment. If the minute degree wave 2 is really over, then we should see a very strong wave 3 of multiple magnitude. However, there is a chance that a more complex correction is still underway and the latest 5 waves move up is in the mix of multiple leg wxy pattern. If that is the case, then we should see a strong move down i the upcoming weeks, but price should get support at $15-$14 range.

Since direction is not yet clear, it is better to wait and see how things unfold. I may add a position if we see price move above $23 rather quickly. However, a stop loss will be a must to avoid getting caught in a massive meltdown. If price does break below $20 again, then I will look for support in the lower high-volume area to start building positions.

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