- 
UPS stock has been a dog in the last 3 years.
- However, worst appears to be behind us.
- Fundamentally,
| Year | Bear EPS | Base EPS | Bull EPS |
| -------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | ------------------|
| 2025. | ~$6.90 (~3%) | ~$7.20 (+7% ) | $7.70 (~15% ) |
| 2026 | ~$7.10 (+3%) | ~$7.70 (+7%) | ~$8.85 (+15%) |
| 2027. | ~$7.30 (+3%) | ~$8.25 (+7%) | ~10.18 (+15%) |
-UPS isn't a growth story but a value play. Currently, it is trading at a valuation of bear case and forward p/e of 10.
- However, I am betting on stabilization and upward revision of multiple. In that case, a fair forward p/e would be 12-15x
| Year | Bear Case Price | Base Case Price | Bull Case Price |
| -------- | ------------------ | -------------------------- | -------------------- |
| 2025 | $6.90× 10-12 → $69-83| $7.20× 15-18 → $108-130| $7.70× 20-25 → $154-193|
| 2026 | $7.10× 10-12 → $71-85| $7.70× 15-18 → $116-139 | $8.85× 20-25 → $177-221 |
| 2027 | $7.30× 10-12 → $73-88 | $8.25× 15-18 → $124-149 | $10.18×20-25 → $204-255 |
UPS stock has been a dog in the last 3 years. - However, worst appears to be behind us.
- Fundamentally,
| Year | Bear EPS | Base EPS | Bull EPS |
| -------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | ------------------|
| 2025. | ~$6.90 (~3%) | ~$7.20 (+7% ) | $7.70 (~15% ) |
| 2026 | ~$7.10 (+3%) | ~$7.70 (+7%) | ~$8.85 (+15%) |
| 2027. | ~$7.30 (+3%) | ~$8.25 (+7%) | ~10.18 (+15%) |
-
UPS isn't a growth story but a value play. Currently, it is trading at a valuation of bear case and forward p/e of 10. - However, I am betting on stabilization and upward revision of multiple. In that case, a fair forward p/e would be 12-15x
| Year | Bear Case Price | Base Case Price | Bull Case Price |
| -------- | ------------------ | -------------------------- | -------------------- |
| 2025 | $6.90× 10-12 → $69-83| $7.20× 15-18 → $108-130| $7.70× 20-25 → $154-193|
| 2026 | $7.10× 10-12 → $71-85| $7.70× 15-18 → $116-139 | $8.85× 20-25 → $177-221 |
| 2027 | $7.30× 10-12 → $73-88 | $8.25× 15-18 → $124-149 | $10.18×20-25 → $204-255 |
Nota
So, base case for UPS in 2026 for me is around $116 with forward p/e of 15 that's roughly ~38% upside Nota
In the worst case, it's a dead money for the year and I collect around 7.5-8% yield
Nota
- UPS is ready to deliver gains to shareholders during the festive season :)- Seasonality is in favour, stock price is very pessimistic
- Insiders are loading shares
Nota
- UPS is getting ready for the run, better to size up before you catch the parcel at > 100Nota
- So many investors are still fixated on UPS breaking up the deal from 
AMZN is a bad thing. Please hold my beer, the ticket size for AMZN is on an average is in double digit. - Yes you lose on volume but it's not profitable for them.
UPS can focus on higher margin shipments which usually comes from consumers directly selling instead of big company like AMZN-
SHOP customers when they ship their products via UPS is usually more profitable. -
AMZN fullfillment might gain market share by the virtue of more orders they process but it would drag down their margins because even AMZN at that massive scale have thin margins from deliveries. Most of the AMZN margins comes from AWS and ADsNota
- UPS should trade above $120 before end of 2026 just via some stabilization and mean reversion in the multipleNota
UPS is above $108 on Jan 11, 2026
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.