Wedge Pattern Signals Breakdown Risk

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Is that a bear wedge I see forming on the 4H silver chart?

Given the volatility across other markets in Asia today, I would have thought technicals wouldn’t carry the same clout as in more normal conditions. But when I look at the price action in silver, what immediately stands out is just how respectful it continues to be of known levels, even in an environment where multi-percentage point intraday moves are becoming the norm rather than the exception.

If that remains the case, we may soon find out whether the pattern is worth paying attention to, with price now pushing back towards the top of its ascending range.

If price is unable to break above $86, where wedge resistance intersects with horizontal resistance, shorts could be set targeting wedge support and, should that give way, either $79.30 or the low set late Tuesday.

Some may prefer to wait for a downside break given the pattern has only just formed, allowing shorts to be set beneath former wedge support with a stop above for protection, targeting either of the latter two levels.

If we’re not looking at a bear wedge and price continues to trend higher, another idea would be to wait for a break above $82 that holds, allowing longs to be set above the level with a stop below for protection. Between $91.50 and $92.20 looks a reasonable target given the skittish environment.

The oscillators still marginally favour a bearish bias, although overall downside pressure appears to be easing rather than building.

Good luck!
DS

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