XAUUSD — Recovery First, Bearish Rejection Later

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Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. For next week, price may create a technical recovery first, but the larger structure still shows bearish pressure while gold stays below the main descending trendline.

Technical Analysis
On the 12H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,120 after holding above short-term support. The first upside area to watch is 4,204, which acts as strong resistance. If price continues higher, the major sell zone is around 4,300 - 4,310, where Fibonacci resistance, previous structure, and the descending trendline align. A rejection from this area could send gold back toward 3,942, then the deeper Fibonacci target near 3,754.

Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,120
Short-term resistance: 4,204
Main sell zone: 4,300 - 4,310
Strong support: 3,942
Main Fibonacci target: 3,754 - 3,751
Invalidation: above 4,310

Trading Scenario
Main Sell Setup
Entry: 4,300 - 4,310
Stop Loss: 4,360
Take Profit 1: 4,204
Take Profit 2: 3,942
Take Profit 3: 3,754 - 3,751

Sell Condition
Wait for gold to recover toward the 4,300 - 4,310 Fibonacci sell zone. A valid sell setup needs bearish rejection from this area, such as a long upper wick, failed breakout, or bearish candle close below the zone. If price rejects and breaks back below 4,204, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. If price breaks and holds above 4,310, the sell setup is invalid.

Overall View
The main plan for next week is not to sell too early at the current price. Gold may rise first toward 4,204 or even 4,300 - 4,310 before sellers return. As long as price stays below the descending trendline and rejects the Fibonacci sell zone, the larger downside target remains 3,942 and 3,754.

Do you share the same view that gold may recover first before the next bearish move?

Penafian

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