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XAUUSD H1 Volume Profile and Key Price Areas

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XAUUSD H1 – Volume Profile and Key Price Areas

Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with the primary strategy focused on buying pullbacks

PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN STRATEGY

Buy-the-dip approach aligned with the dominant trend using Volume Profile levels

Expected buy zone: around 4253 based on VAH

Short-term range to monitor: 4263 – 4285

Price expectation: rebound from VAH toward the upper range before further expansion

Position management:
If price holds above the 4263 area and shows clear bullish reaction, maintaining long exposure remains favorable.
If price is strongly rejected near 4285, risk should be reduced as this zone represents an important short-term resistance.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY SETUP

Short-term countertrend opportunity at an extended resistance level

Sell zone for the alternative scenario: around 4310 at the Fibonacci extension

This setup is only considered if clear rejection signals appear at the level

KEY REASONS

The bullish structure on the H1 timeframe remains intact

Volume Profile highlights the VAH near 4253 as a high-probability reaction zone

The 4310 area represents an extended resistance suitable for profit-taking or short-term pullback reactions

MACRO CONTEXT

The Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle and maintains a dovish stance, putting pressure on the US dollar and supporting gold prices.
Geopolitical tensions and concerns about US economic slowdown further reinforce safe-haven demand.
Markets are now focused on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report, where weaker data could drive further upside, while stronger data may trigger a short-term correction.

RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING

Avoid chasing price while gold trades within the 4263 – 4285 range.
The bullish scenario becomes invalid if price breaks clearly below the support area beneath the VAH.
Expect increased volatility around major economic data releases and manage exposure accordingly.

Penafian

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