Yesterday price breakdown from 4650 support and tested the major support area at 4530-50 before bouncing back to 4600.
Looking at the chart, the picture is clear. The descending trendline (red) from the 4892 high is now acting as overhead resistance, pushing price lower with each attempt. The 4650 level that held for weeks as support has flipped to resistance.
What triggered the selloff:
A US official revealed that Trump rejected Iran latest proposal to resolve the two-month conflict, dimming hopes for a swift resolution to the energy supply disruptions. That killed the last remaining hope for an oil collapse. With Hormuz still closed and no deal in sight, oil stays elevated, inflation stays hot, and the Fed stays stuck
The Fibonacci levels have been redrawn on the chart using the 4103 low to 4892 high. The new levels to watch:
0.236 (4706) -- broken and now resistance
0.382 (4590) -- current price area, being tested right now
0.5 (4497) -- next support if 4550 breaks
0.618 (4404) -- support
4530-50 -- MAJOR SUPPORT AREA. Yesterday's bounce came from here. This is the same Strength Confirmation zone from weeks ago. If this breaks on a daily close, the entire recovery from 4100 is in serious trouble.
The Fed rate decision is tonight. Powell press conference follows at midnight. Rate hold at 3.75% is 99.5% priced in. Nobody cares about the decision. Everyone cares about the language.
This is Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair. Warsh takes over May 15. What Powell says about the rate path for the rest of 2026 sets the move for medium term from here.
Looking at the chart, the picture is clear. The descending trendline (red) from the 4892 high is now acting as overhead resistance, pushing price lower with each attempt. The 4650 level that held for weeks as support has flipped to resistance.
What triggered the selloff:
A US official revealed that Trump rejected Iran latest proposal to resolve the two-month conflict, dimming hopes for a swift resolution to the energy supply disruptions. That killed the last remaining hope for an oil collapse. With Hormuz still closed and no deal in sight, oil stays elevated, inflation stays hot, and the Fed stays stuck
The Fibonacci levels have been redrawn on the chart using the 4103 low to 4892 high. The new levels to watch:
0.236 (4706) -- broken and now resistance
0.382 (4590) -- current price area, being tested right now
0.5 (4497) -- next support if 4550 breaks
0.618 (4404) -- support
4530-50 -- MAJOR SUPPORT AREA. Yesterday's bounce came from here. This is the same Strength Confirmation zone from weeks ago. If this breaks on a daily close, the entire recovery from 4100 is in serious trouble.
The Fed rate decision is tonight. Powell press conference follows at midnight. Rate hold at 3.75% is 99.5% priced in. Nobody cares about the decision. Everyone cares about the language.
This is Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair. Warsh takes over May 15. What Powell says about the rate path for the rest of 2026 sets the move for medium term from here.
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Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.