Market Context
Gold has strengthened sharply after the U.S. midterm results triggered a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields. Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress, increasing expectations of political gridlock and supporting safe-haven demand. Spot Gold rose more than 2% in the latest session, while markets now look ahead to U.S. employment data for further clues on the Fed’s December path.
The macro backdrop is still mixed. The Fed kept rates at 3.75%–4.00%, while September job openings rose to 7.523 million, reinforcing expectations that policy could remain restrictive. Markets are still pricing a high probability of a December hike.
Technical View
H1 structure has improved significantly. Gold formed a bullish MSS, followed by a CHOCH and strong upside displacement through the previous structure. Price is now trading around 4,044, directly inside the Premium Supply / Reaction Zone.
The immediate question is whether buyers can sustain acceptance above this supply or whether price needs a deeper retest before another upside attempt.
Key Zones
4,030–4,045: Premium Supply / Reaction Zone
3,970–3,980: Dynamic Support / Retest POI
~4,068: Major upside reference on the chart
Main Trading Plan
The primary scenario is a bullish continuation after a controlled pullback.
If Gold rejects the current Premium Supply without breaking the bullish H1 structure, a retracement toward 3,970–3,980 could provide the next structural test. If buyers defend this Dynamic Support and generate another bullish reaction, the move could extend toward the 4,068 upside area.
An immediate H1 acceptance above the Premium Supply would strengthen the continuation case, but chasing price directly into resistance carries higher reaction risk.
Macro Risk
Today brings additional U.S. catalysts, including ADP employment and ISM Services PMI, while the October Employment Situation is scheduled for Friday, November 6 at 08:30 ET. The ISM Services report is scheduled for today at 10:00 ET, with a current consensus around 54.8 versus 54.9 previously. Stronger data could support USD/yields and pressure Gold, while softer data could reinforce the current bullish reaction.
Buy/Sell View
Bullish while 3,970–3,980 holds.
A defended retest followed by bullish confirmation would support continuation toward the upside reference.
A sustained loss of the Dynamic Support would weaken the current bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper correction.
Final View
Gold has shifted from a pure bearish rebound into a developing bullish H1 structure after MSS, CHOCH and strong displacement. However, price is now entering Premium Supply at 4,030–4,045, so the next move should be confirmed rather than chased. The key area to monitor is 3,970–3,980: holding this zone keeps the bullish continuation thesis alive, while a deeper breakdown would invalidate the current structure.
Gold has strengthened sharply after the U.S. midterm results triggered a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields. Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress, increasing expectations of political gridlock and supporting safe-haven demand. Spot Gold rose more than 2% in the latest session, while markets now look ahead to U.S. employment data for further clues on the Fed’s December path.
The macro backdrop is still mixed. The Fed kept rates at 3.75%–4.00%, while September job openings rose to 7.523 million, reinforcing expectations that policy could remain restrictive. Markets are still pricing a high probability of a December hike.
Technical View
H1 structure has improved significantly. Gold formed a bullish MSS, followed by a CHOCH and strong upside displacement through the previous structure. Price is now trading around 4,044, directly inside the Premium Supply / Reaction Zone.
The immediate question is whether buyers can sustain acceptance above this supply or whether price needs a deeper retest before another upside attempt.
Key Zones
4,030–4,045: Premium Supply / Reaction Zone
3,970–3,980: Dynamic Support / Retest POI
~4,068: Major upside reference on the chart
Main Trading Plan
The primary scenario is a bullish continuation after a controlled pullback.
If Gold rejects the current Premium Supply without breaking the bullish H1 structure, a retracement toward 3,970–3,980 could provide the next structural test. If buyers defend this Dynamic Support and generate another bullish reaction, the move could extend toward the 4,068 upside area.
An immediate H1 acceptance above the Premium Supply would strengthen the continuation case, but chasing price directly into resistance carries higher reaction risk.
Macro Risk
Today brings additional U.S. catalysts, including ADP employment and ISM Services PMI, while the October Employment Situation is scheduled for Friday, November 6 at 08:30 ET. The ISM Services report is scheduled for today at 10:00 ET, with a current consensus around 54.8 versus 54.9 previously. Stronger data could support USD/yields and pressure Gold, while softer data could reinforce the current bullish reaction.
Buy/Sell View
Bullish while 3,970–3,980 holds.
A defended retest followed by bullish confirmation would support continuation toward the upside reference.
A sustained loss of the Dynamic Support would weaken the current bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper correction.
Final View
Gold has shifted from a pure bearish rebound into a developing bullish H1 structure after MSS, CHOCH and strong displacement. However, price is now entering Premium Supply at 4,030–4,045, so the next move should be confirmed rather than chased. The key area to monitor is 3,970–3,980: holding this zone keeps the bullish continuation thesis alive, while a deeper breakdown would invalidate the current structure.
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
Gold has extended the bullish move to around 4,083, breaking above the 4,030–4,045 Premium Supply / Reaction Zone and reaching the chart’s marked upside area. The rally remains supported by a weaker US dollar and softer Treasury yields after the U.S. midterm elections, while Gold gained about 3.4% in the previous session. However, stronger-than-expected ADP private payrolls at 86K keeps Fed-rate risk alive ahead of Friday’s NFP. Technically, the bullish structure remains intact above 3,970–3,980. A hold above 4,045 favors continuation, while a rejection could trigger a retest of the dynamic support zone.
📊 XAU Macro Pulse · XAUUSD · GBPUSD · EURUSD
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+ZahF8It14l40OWNl
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+ZahF8It14l40OWNl
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
📊 XAU Macro Pulse · XAUUSD · GBPUSD · EURUSD
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+ZahF8It14l40OWNl
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+ZahF8It14l40OWNl
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.