XAUUSD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS – MAY 6, 2026

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Momentum
– D1 Timeframe: Momentum is currently closing. This indicates the bullish move could persist, but a reversal could occur at any time. A bearish daily candle is required for reversal confirmation.
– H4 Timeframe: Momentum is in the overbought zone and is sticking together (clumping). This shows the H4 uptrend may continue but the momentum is no longer strong. We are waiting for a bearish H4 candle to confirm a reversal, leading to a potential drop or sideways movement for at least 3 to 5 H4 candles.
– H1 Timeframe: Momentum is overbought and sticking together, signaling the uptrend might continue but has weakened and could reverse at any moment.
– The fact that D1, H4, and H1 momentum are all prepared for a reversal signals a high probability that this is a major top.
Elliott Wave Pattern
– D1 Wave Pattern: No changes; price is still in a minor sideways-up corrective phase. Once D1 momentum confirms a reversal, we expect a downward move to complete Red Wave Y.
– H4 Wave Pattern: Since price held above 4513 and moved higher, a Blue ABC Flat correction is forming for Wave X.
– If the current Red Wave X is indeed a Flat pattern, the 4647 – 4670 area is the ideal termination zone.
– Combined with H4 and D1 momentum approaching a bearish reversal, the 4647 – 4670 range is the ideal target to complete the Red Wave X Flat structure.
H1 Wave Pattern
– On the H1 timeframe, within the 4647 – 4670 potential target, there are two strong liquidity zones acting as key resistance: 4645 – 4668. This is the narrow zone where we will look for Short entries.
– Price is currently held at 4645. This is a liquidity zone coinciding with the WAVE C = Wave A$ (Blue) projection, so we can place a speculative Sell bet here.
– Note: If price breaks and closes above 4668, it will likely reach higher targets at 4706 or even 4754. In that case, we will no longer attempt to "sell against the train."
Trading Plan
Sell Zone 1: 4645 – 4647
– SL: 4665
– TP1: 4597 | TP2: 4507 | TP3: 4473
Sell Zone 2: 4668 – 4670
– SL: 4693
– TP1: 4597 | TP2: 4507 | TP3: 4473

Penafian

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