XAUUSD remains biased to the downside, as neither the macro backdrop nor the W1 structure has shown enough strength to shift the current balance. Persistent inflation, elevated real yields, and expectations that the Fed may keep policy restrictive for longer continue to make it difficult for gold to regain sustained momentum.
From a fundamental perspective, high oil prices and persistent inflation risks remain important sources of pressure. A softer USD or temporary declines in Treasury yields may create short-term rebounds, but so far these moves have done little more than ease the pressure. As long as the market believes the Fed is not in a position to ease aggressively, gold will continue to face an unfavorable macro environment.
On the W1 chart, the bearish structure remains intact. Price continues to trade below the descending trendline, while the Ichimoku structure above still weighs on recovery attempts. The repeated failure to sustain strength at higher levels, together with the sequence of lower highs, suggests that supply continues to return whenever price tries to recover. As long as that structure remains unchanged, the risk of a deeper decline stays dominant.
My preferred scenario is to wait patiently for corrective rebounds rather than chase SELL positions after a sharp decline. If BUY momentum fades quickly and selling pressure returns, that would signal that the broader trend is reasserting itself. In that case, 3,500 remains my primary downside target, and any corrective rebound is still viewed as an opportunity to look for SELL setups as long as the W1 structure remains intact.
In summary, both the macro environment and the technical structure continue to favor sellers. As long as monetary policy remains restrictive, real yields stay elevated, and the weekly structure continues to print lower highs, I remain focused on SELL opportunities with the broader trend, with 3,500 as the key downside objective if bearish pressure persists.
From a fundamental perspective, high oil prices and persistent inflation risks remain important sources of pressure. A softer USD or temporary declines in Treasury yields may create short-term rebounds, but so far these moves have done little more than ease the pressure. As long as the market believes the Fed is not in a position to ease aggressively, gold will continue to face an unfavorable macro environment.
On the W1 chart, the bearish structure remains intact. Price continues to trade below the descending trendline, while the Ichimoku structure above still weighs on recovery attempts. The repeated failure to sustain strength at higher levels, together with the sequence of lower highs, suggests that supply continues to return whenever price tries to recover. As long as that structure remains unchanged, the risk of a deeper decline stays dominant.
My preferred scenario is to wait patiently for corrective rebounds rather than chase SELL positions after a sharp decline. If BUY momentum fades quickly and selling pressure returns, that would signal that the broader trend is reasserting itself. In that case, 3,500 remains my primary downside target, and any corrective rebound is still viewed as an opportunity to look for SELL setups as long as the W1 structure remains intact.
In summary, both the macro environment and the technical structure continue to favor sellers. As long as monetary policy remains restrictive, real yields stay elevated, and the weekly structure continues to print lower highs, I remain focused on SELL opportunities with the broader trend, with 3,500 as the key downside objective if bearish pressure persists.
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Free daily Forex, Gold, Crypto setups with reasoning
Entry, invalidation, targets and reviews
👉 Join free: t.me/+-HowPr1J4k03NGY1
Educational only. Not financial advice. Trading involves risk.
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.