XHB - Housing Is In Real Trouble - My Short explained

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🏠 Some Facts & Fundamentals first 🏠

The Fed has made its first rate cut in 2025, and more are expected if inflation remains under control. That could put downward pressure on long-term mortgage rates, which may give the market a little boost.

Builders (like Lennar) are 🏚️ facing profit pressure 🏚️ due to affordability and are offering incentives (rate buydowns, other discounts) to spur demand.


📈 Now to the technicals 📉

Price went up to the Centerline. The 80% rule played out like textbook.

Then it closed above the Centerline, and failed to move further up to the U-MLH, which is a loud 🚨 warning sign 🚨.

And finally, we have a confirmed "Hagopian", when we close below the Centerline this Week.

To me it's all perfect in line - I mean, the TA & Fundamentals.

My plan is, to play XHB short with LEAP Options (182 Days) and take profit on the way down, which is at the Centerline, 1/4 Line and the L-MLH.

Of cours I would bail out or hedge, if price open & close again above the Centerline on the weekly time frame Chart.


⚠️ Stay updated ⚠️
I will start something new in one or two weeks, so you better don't miss it and follow! §8-)

❤️ THANK YOU ALL ❤️
...for the Boosts and Follow from this week. Your feedback is what makes it worth to post!

I wish you all a relaxing and happy weekend §8-)
Nota
On the way down to the Centerline.

Penafian

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