OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
ZIZO BTC Power Law
ZIZO BTC Power Law — Streamlined Edition
A fixed power law channel for Bitcoin. No refitting. No drift. No statistical bands. Every line on the chart is a number you can check for yourself.
The model
Bitcoin's long-run price has tracked a power law of time since the Genesis Block. This script draws that law and nothing else:
Price = A × (days since Genesis)^n
A = 3.21 × 10⁻¹⁷
n = 5.688
Genesis = 3 January 2009
These coefficients are fixed. They do not recalibrate as new candles print. That is deliberate. A model that constantly refits itself can never be wrong, and so can never be verified. This one holds still, which means you can test it against price and judge it honestly.
The bands
The centre line is fair value — the raw model output (1.000×). Every other band is a chosen multiple of fair value, not a standard deviation or a curve fit:
Cycle Top — 2.627× fair value
Fair Value 2 — 1.747×
PL Median (fair value) — 1.000×
Fair Value 1 — 0.667×
Floor — 0.420×
Zones between the bands are shaded low-to-high so the chart reads at a glance.
Also on the chart
200-day SMA, coloured green above / red below, as a tactical trend layer over the macro model.
Halving markers. H1–H4 are the four confirmed halvings, verified against their calendar dates. H5+ is projected from the last confirmed halving plus a configurable interval (default 1,461 days). No cycle dates are hardcoded beyond the four that have actually happened.
Forward projection lines at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years, with fair-value and cycle-top price labels. This is model extrapolation, not a forecast.
Info table — every band price, live deviation from fair value and from the 200 SMA, log-space channel position (0 = floor, 1 = top), day-count streaks above/below each key line, and forward targets.
How to read it
Channel position is the quick summary. Near 1.0, price sits at the historical top of the band and risk is high. Near 0.0, price sits at the floor and value is high. The 200 SMA tells you the current trend; the power law tells you where that trend sits inside the long cycle.
Alerts
Crossings of the Cycle Top, Floor, PL Median, Fair Value 1/2, and the 200 SMA — up and down.
Design principles
Fixed anchors over dynamic models. Chosen multipliers over fitted sigma bands. Self-extending halvings over hardcoded dates. Every number on screen is a deliberate value you can audit.
Notes
This is a research and analysis tool, not financial advice. Power law fair value is a long-horizon reference, not a price prediction. Past cycle structure does not guarantee future structure. Verify everything before you act on it.
License: MPL 2.0. Built by PseudoNakamoto21.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
A fixed power law channel for Bitcoin. No refitting. No drift. No statistical bands. Every line on the chart is a number you can check for yourself.
The model
Bitcoin's long-run price has tracked a power law of time since the Genesis Block. This script draws that law and nothing else:
Price = A × (days since Genesis)^n
A = 3.21 × 10⁻¹⁷
n = 5.688
Genesis = 3 January 2009
These coefficients are fixed. They do not recalibrate as new candles print. That is deliberate. A model that constantly refits itself can never be wrong, and so can never be verified. This one holds still, which means you can test it against price and judge it honestly.
The bands
The centre line is fair value — the raw model output (1.000×). Every other band is a chosen multiple of fair value, not a standard deviation or a curve fit:
Cycle Top — 2.627× fair value
Fair Value 2 — 1.747×
PL Median (fair value) — 1.000×
Fair Value 1 — 0.667×
Floor — 0.420×
Zones between the bands are shaded low-to-high so the chart reads at a glance.
Also on the chart
200-day SMA, coloured green above / red below, as a tactical trend layer over the macro model.
Halving markers. H1–H4 are the four confirmed halvings, verified against their calendar dates. H5+ is projected from the last confirmed halving plus a configurable interval (default 1,461 days). No cycle dates are hardcoded beyond the four that have actually happened.
Forward projection lines at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years, with fair-value and cycle-top price labels. This is model extrapolation, not a forecast.
Info table — every band price, live deviation from fair value and from the 200 SMA, log-space channel position (0 = floor, 1 = top), day-count streaks above/below each key line, and forward targets.
How to read it
Channel position is the quick summary. Near 1.0, price sits at the historical top of the band and risk is high. Near 0.0, price sits at the floor and value is high. The 200 SMA tells you the current trend; the power law tells you where that trend sits inside the long cycle.
Alerts
Crossings of the Cycle Top, Floor, PL Median, Fair Value 1/2, and the 200 SMA — up and down.
Design principles
Fixed anchors over dynamic models. Chosen multipliers over fitted sigma bands. Self-extending halvings over hardcoded dates. Every number on screen is a deliberate value you can audit.
Notes
This is a research and analysis tool, not financial advice. Power law fair value is a long-horizon reference, not a price prediction. Past cycle structure does not guarantee future structure. Verify everything before you act on it.
License: MPL 2.0. Built by PseudoNakamoto21.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
Skrip sumber terbuka
Dalam semangat TradingView sebenar, pencipta skrip ini telah menjadikannya sumber terbuka, jadi pedagang boleh menilai dan mengesahkan kefungsiannya. Terima kasih kepada penulis! Walaupuan anda boleh menggunakan secara percuma, ingat bahawa penerbitan semula kod ini tertakluk kepada Peraturan Dalaman.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
Skrip sumber terbuka
Dalam semangat TradingView sebenar, pencipta skrip ini telah menjadikannya sumber terbuka, jadi pedagang boleh menilai dan mengesahkan kefungsiannya. Terima kasih kepada penulis! Walaupuan anda boleh menggunakan secara percuma, ingat bahawa penerbitan semula kod ini tertakluk kepada Peraturan Dalaman.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.