AVAX: Round Trip, Not Done Yet

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Nine days ago AVAX/USDT put in a parabolic run on the 90-minute chart, tagging highs near 8.20 before the move ran out of buyers. What's followed since isn't a crash — it's a controlled bleed. Each bounce has topped out lower than the last: 7.868, then 7.839 on the retest, and price is now pressing into support carved out by two touches, 7.523 and 7.279.

The bounce attempt in the middle of the decline is worth studying on its own. A single 90-minute candle ripped from 7.276 to 7.839 on a volume spike nearly six times the average bar — that's the kind of move that looks like a reversal in the moment. It wasn't. Price gave the entire range back within four bars and kept sliding, which says more about where the real supply sits than the bounce itself did.

Right now price is sitting at 7.327, inside the lower half of the range and hugging the descending support line drawn off those two swing lows. A clean break under 7.279 opens more room down; a reclaim back above the 7.5s would be the first sign sellers are losing control. Volume on this leg down has been unremarkable so far — no capitulation spike yet, which is worth flagging rather than ignoring.

Not a signal to buy or sell either side — just where the structure stands right now.

Educational analysis only, not financial advice. Always do your own research before acting on any chart.

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