(This is a prediction of future price action for Bitcoin, assuming several interpretive, contextual beliefs which may not be held by all who read this. However, they are held by me. Therefore, this thesis is dubiously speculative, to borrow Ben Cowen’s coined term for this type of analysis.)
Historically, the bull market support band has been consistent in the signal that I am using it for here. A simple sequence of events occurs that provides a “qualifying context,” which we can use to avoid “what about when” scenarios that do not apply, or are irrelevant under the same scrutiny.
WHEN Bitcoin:
AND:
THEN:
based on history, and unless Bitcoin can reclaim and accept back above the bull market support band in less than three months from the initial break below it, if these four conditions are met, it suggests that the cycle top is in and that we have entered an extended bear market.
As of writing this, not only have we spent 79 consecutive daily candles underneath the bull market support band, but we had yet to even touch it since originally breaking below it on October 29th of last year, until two days ago, on day 77, when we rejected off the lower band 21W EMA.
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MANDATORY ADDENDUM: I am generally cautious about assigning too much importance to “historical precedent” in this market. Cryptocurrency, as a financial market, is still very young, and its dynamics are rapidly evolving. Inherent to this market’s immaturity and constantly shifting landscape is the likelihood that we still have many “firsts” left to experience. Put differently: many things will happen that have not happened yet.
When you consider the fact that we have only ever had four bull/bear “cycles” in total, the idea of something unprecedented happening, or something unfolding contrary to prior cycle patterns, should be less surprising than it otherwise might be in more mature markets; I would argue that these hypothetical rebukes to precedent should actually be expected, actually. However, until we do something for the first time, we have no earnest argument against historical precedents like the one outlined here, and can only proceed cautiously, with flexible biases.
Historically, the bull market support band has been consistent in the signal that I am using it for here. A simple sequence of events occurs that provides a “qualifying context,” which we can use to avoid “what about when” scenarios that do not apply, or are irrelevant under the same scrutiny.
WHEN Bitcoin:
- prints an all time high
- begins correcting from that all time high
- breaks below both moving averages on the 1W bull market support band
AND:
- the bull market support band’s 21W EMA is below the 20W SMA when the break below them occurs
THEN:
based on history, and unless Bitcoin can reclaim and accept back above the bull market support band in less than three months from the initial break below it, if these four conditions are met, it suggests that the cycle top is in and that we have entered an extended bear market.
As of writing this, not only have we spent 79 consecutive daily candles underneath the bull market support band, but we had yet to even touch it since originally breaking below it on October 29th of last year, until two days ago, on day 77, when we rejected off the lower band 21W EMA.
-----------------------------------
MANDATORY ADDENDUM: I am generally cautious about assigning too much importance to “historical precedent” in this market. Cryptocurrency, as a financial market, is still very young, and its dynamics are rapidly evolving. Inherent to this market’s immaturity and constantly shifting landscape is the likelihood that we still have many “firsts” left to experience. Put differently: many things will happen that have not happened yet.
When you consider the fact that we have only ever had four bull/bear “cycles” in total, the idea of something unprecedented happening, or something unfolding contrary to prior cycle patterns, should be less surprising than it otherwise might be in more mature markets; I would argue that these hypothetical rebukes to precedent should actually be expected, actually. However, until we do something for the first time, we have no earnest argument against historical precedents like the one outlined here, and can only proceed cautiously, with flexible biases.
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Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.