The Clarity Act was passed yesterday with a 15-9 vote. So are you surprised the total crypto market cap has erased over $115 billion in the past 24 hours? It is my goal to provide you clarity on how markets behave and what to expect going forward.
Before I provide a full breakdown of how the Clarity Act has affected the price of Bitcoin, let's first examine exactly how the market moved in relation to yesterday's events.
Here you can see a classic example of buy the rumor, sell the news. At 10:30 AM ET the Clarity Act was sent to a vote. Bitcoin's price was around $80,100 as voting began. As voting continued and more support started to emerge for the bill, Bitcoin's price quickly rose to a high of $82,066 as headlines confirming the Clarity Act had passed began to circulate.
During all the hype and euphoria, this is where market makers began to take advantage of this liquidity by selling into it. This is not a coincidence and aligns exactly with the technicals and mathematical market structure.
Let's break this down first, then I will get into the full deep dive of the major events in the Clarity Act timeline.
The first and most important factor is that Bitcoin was just rejected for the third time at the 200 SMA and 200 EMA.
I highlighted the significance of this level as it occurred for the first time on May 6, 2026 in the description of my TradingView idea titled "BTC: How to Predict the Future":
The next major thing to note is that Bitcoin was just rejected a third time from my "Main Target" outlined in this post:
I thought it might have a little room to continue slightly higher toward $84,000 to sweep the upside liquidity, but sellers are still clearly interested in the $82,000 level becoming a local top. This is no coincidence, as I had my "Main Target" outlined starting at $82,000 as early as March 5, 2026:
And even before that, on December 22, 2025, I outlined how once BTC completed its next bear leg to the downside, the rebound would likely lead to the 0.382 Fibonacci of the macro range around $82,300 (illustrated with my black arrows):
Now that I have laid out the technical reasons why the rejection at the $82,000 level following the passage of the Clarity Act was so significant, is it possible that this is the next "sell the news" event that will start the next bear market leg?
To understand this, let's examine Bitcoin's full picture since December 2025 through the lens of the Clarity Act.
Buy the rumor, sell the news is a classic market pattern where price rises in anticipation of a positive event, then sells off once the event is officially confirmed. Smart money and informed traders position early, often months before the event, driving price up on speculation and growing conviction. Once the news becomes public and certain, those same early buyers take profit into the euphoria of retail participants buying the confirmation. The result is a price peak at or near the actual announcement, followed by a sharp reversal, even though the news itself is typically bullish. Do not get me wrong, the Clarity Act is very bullish for the long term impact of crypto, but this does not mean price action will immediately reflect that.
This is where things get really interesting, as the technicals and the predictive nature of these crypto markets align perfectly with the news cycle.
December 18, 2025: David Sacks posted on X confirming that the markup for the Clarity Act was coming in January. This led Bitcoin from a low of $84,400 to a high of $98,000 in less than a month, a classic example of market participants buying the rumor.
About a week after that post was made, when Bitcoin was still trading around $89,500, I published a post outlining that Bitcoin would rally to and create its next macro lower high at $98,000:
January 9, 2026: The markup for the Clarity Act was officially scheduled for January 15, 2026. This sent Bitcoin from a low of $89,500 toward its high of $98,000. Again, a date was set and participants began buying into the rumor.
January 14, 2026: Brian Armstrong posted on X that Coinbase would not support the bill, and the committee announced it would postpone the markup of the digital asset market structure legislation. This is a classic example of a "sell the news" event marking the top. There was no longer any substance to the rumor that participants had been buying into, and the selling began.
What is incredible about this is that it aligned perfectly with where the math said the next high would be. I made a follow up post the very next day stating the bounce was completed and the next bear market leg would begin:
Through February and March, negotiations were ongoing in relation to the bill. Then on April 9, 2026, a classic buy the rumor setup began once again when Brian Armstrong posted on X that he agreed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and that it was time to pass the Clarity Act, reversing his January opposition. This began a Bitcoin rally from a low of $70,400.
April 21, 2026: The committee announced that the Clarity Act markup would be pushed into the May schedule. Again, a date was beginning to take shape and speculators began buying the rumor, with Bitcoin finding a low at $74,800.
May 1, 2026: Brian Armstrong posted "Mark it up" on X following the public release of the Clarity Act compromise text, sending speculators into another buy the rumor move from a Bitcoin low of $76,200.
May 9, 2026: The committee officially announced a markup date of May 14. This sent speculators into yet another buy the rumor rally, with Bitcoin moving from a low of $80,100 back into the mid $82,000s.
May 14, 2026: The vote began with Bitcoin trading once again around $80,100. By the time the bill was confirmed to have passed the committee, Bitcoin had reached its perfect resistance level at $82,000 and the sell the news event began to take shape.
The Clarity Act is very bullish for the future of this industry, but the major rally we have seen was fueled by the rumor of this bill being passed. Now that it has cleared committee, there is nothing left to speculate on in the near term.
Bitcoin has hit its perfect resistance levels, so a larger pullback from here would be perfectly healthy and an acceptable development as it continues to build its current market structure. As I do with all my ideas, I will continue to update the charts and targets as key structural developments emerge.
Please leave your thoughts below and thank you for reading!
Before I provide a full breakdown of how the Clarity Act has affected the price of Bitcoin, let's first examine exactly how the market moved in relation to yesterday's events.
Here you can see a classic example of buy the rumor, sell the news. At 10:30 AM ET the Clarity Act was sent to a vote. Bitcoin's price was around $80,100 as voting began. As voting continued and more support started to emerge for the bill, Bitcoin's price quickly rose to a high of $82,066 as headlines confirming the Clarity Act had passed began to circulate.
During all the hype and euphoria, this is where market makers began to take advantage of this liquidity by selling into it. This is not a coincidence and aligns exactly with the technicals and mathematical market structure.
Let's break this down first, then I will get into the full deep dive of the major events in the Clarity Act timeline.
The first and most important factor is that Bitcoin was just rejected for the third time at the 200 SMA and 200 EMA.
I highlighted the significance of this level as it occurred for the first time on May 6, 2026 in the description of my TradingView idea titled "BTC: How to Predict the Future":
The next major thing to note is that Bitcoin was just rejected a third time from my "Main Target" outlined in this post:
I thought it might have a little room to continue slightly higher toward $84,000 to sweep the upside liquidity, but sellers are still clearly interested in the $82,000 level becoming a local top. This is no coincidence, as I had my "Main Target" outlined starting at $82,000 as early as March 5, 2026:
And even before that, on December 22, 2025, I outlined how once BTC completed its next bear leg to the downside, the rebound would likely lead to the 0.382 Fibonacci of the macro range around $82,300 (illustrated with my black arrows):
Now that I have laid out the technical reasons why the rejection at the $82,000 level following the passage of the Clarity Act was so significant, is it possible that this is the next "sell the news" event that will start the next bear market leg?
To understand this, let's examine Bitcoin's full picture since December 2025 through the lens of the Clarity Act.
Buy the rumor, sell the news is a classic market pattern where price rises in anticipation of a positive event, then sells off once the event is officially confirmed. Smart money and informed traders position early, often months before the event, driving price up on speculation and growing conviction. Once the news becomes public and certain, those same early buyers take profit into the euphoria of retail participants buying the confirmation. The result is a price peak at or near the actual announcement, followed by a sharp reversal, even though the news itself is typically bullish. Do not get me wrong, the Clarity Act is very bullish for the long term impact of crypto, but this does not mean price action will immediately reflect that.
This is where things get really interesting, as the technicals and the predictive nature of these crypto markets align perfectly with the news cycle.
December 18, 2025: David Sacks posted on X confirming that the markup for the Clarity Act was coming in January. This led Bitcoin from a low of $84,400 to a high of $98,000 in less than a month, a classic example of market participants buying the rumor.
About a week after that post was made, when Bitcoin was still trading around $89,500, I published a post outlining that Bitcoin would rally to and create its next macro lower high at $98,000:
January 9, 2026: The markup for the Clarity Act was officially scheduled for January 15, 2026. This sent Bitcoin from a low of $89,500 toward its high of $98,000. Again, a date was set and participants began buying into the rumor.
January 14, 2026: Brian Armstrong posted on X that Coinbase would not support the bill, and the committee announced it would postpone the markup of the digital asset market structure legislation. This is a classic example of a "sell the news" event marking the top. There was no longer any substance to the rumor that participants had been buying into, and the selling began.
What is incredible about this is that it aligned perfectly with where the math said the next high would be. I made a follow up post the very next day stating the bounce was completed and the next bear market leg would begin:
Through February and March, negotiations were ongoing in relation to the bill. Then on April 9, 2026, a classic buy the rumor setup began once again when Brian Armstrong posted on X that he agreed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and that it was time to pass the Clarity Act, reversing his January opposition. This began a Bitcoin rally from a low of $70,400.
April 21, 2026: The committee announced that the Clarity Act markup would be pushed into the May schedule. Again, a date was beginning to take shape and speculators began buying the rumor, with Bitcoin finding a low at $74,800.
May 1, 2026: Brian Armstrong posted "Mark it up" on X following the public release of the Clarity Act compromise text, sending speculators into another buy the rumor move from a Bitcoin low of $76,200.
May 9, 2026: The committee officially announced a markup date of May 14. This sent speculators into yet another buy the rumor rally, with Bitcoin moving from a low of $80,100 back into the mid $82,000s.
May 14, 2026: The vote began with Bitcoin trading once again around $80,100. By the time the bill was confirmed to have passed the committee, Bitcoin had reached its perfect resistance level at $82,000 and the sell the news event began to take shape.
The Clarity Act is very bullish for the future of this industry, but the major rally we have seen was fueled by the rumor of this bill being passed. Now that it has cleared committee, there is nothing left to speculate on in the near term.
Bitcoin has hit its perfect resistance levels, so a larger pullback from here would be perfectly healthy and an acceptable development as it continues to build its current market structure. As I do with all my ideas, I will continue to update the charts and targets as key structural developments emerge.
Please leave your thoughts below and thank you for reading!
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Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.