$BTC Weekend Setup: Two Timeframes, Two Stories

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Today's dump was stopped right on the 4h 50 EMA, but the picture is conflicting right now.

Daily: constructive
→ Clean retest of the old 83K high
→ Holding the swing VWAP (volume-weighted average price) anchored at the 75K low where this pump started

4h + lower timeframes: sellers stepping in
→ Double top into 87K with RSI divergence
→ First time in this move that BTC failed to make a new high on the 4h
→ Friday's daily candle closed with a long upper wick

That's what makes today important. Sellers put the lid on it for the first time.

My expectation:
at least a wick-fill toward ~86K (the 0.618 fib of the drop, and imbalance sits there). From there I lean lower rather than higher. A weekend pump into that zone looks more like a fill than real demand, especially with thin liquidity.

What changes my mind: BTC accepting above 86.5K, meaning closes up there instead of just wicks.
NFA.

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