BTC is sitting at 71,782 after one of the most aggressive short squeezes we have seen in weeks. Price broke out of the descending channel that contained price since the 75k rejection, swept through every liquidity cluster on the way up, and is now consolidating inside the daily gap zone between 71k and 73.3k.
The move was real. Volume on the breakout candle was the highest in weeks and VAH has been reclaimed and held on the first retest. Structurally this is the most bullish the chart has looked in over a month.
But CPI drops today at 20:30. Forecast 1.0% month on month versus 0.3% prior. That number changes everything depending on how it prints.
Three scenarios going into the print.
Scenario 1 — Liquidity grab to 73.3k then rejection.
Price sweeps the short liquidation cluster sitting at 73.3k before CPI, triggers the stops above, and then a hot inflation print sends it straight back down. This is the cleanest short setup on the chart right now. Entry on the rejection candle from 73.3k, stop above 74k, targets 70k then 68k on continuation.
Scenario 2 — Rejection from current levels, 70k reaction.
Price never reaches 73.3k. Starts fading here as traders de-risk ahead of the print. 70k is the critical support — that zone holds and it becomes a long scalp back to 71.5k. Loses 70k on a 4h close and the move opens toward 68k then 65-66k with nothing meaningful in between.
Scenario 3 — Flip 73.3k and hold above it.
CPI comes in softer than expected. Clean 4h close above 73.3k with follow through. Daily gap fully accepted, next targets 75k then 76k. This is the bull continuation scenario but requires a genuine inflation surprise to the downside. Lower probability given the macro backdrop but cannot be ignored if the data cooperates.
The highest probability setup today is Scenario 1. The liq grab to 73.3k followed by a CPI-driven rejection gives you a defined entry, a tight stop, and the macro catalyst to accelerate the move. Risk reward is clean.
70k is the level that decides everything tonight. Hold it and bulls stay in control. Lose it and the entire pump from 65k gets retraced fast.
20:30 is the moment.
The move was real. Volume on the breakout candle was the highest in weeks and VAH has been reclaimed and held on the first retest. Structurally this is the most bullish the chart has looked in over a month.
But CPI drops today at 20:30. Forecast 1.0% month on month versus 0.3% prior. That number changes everything depending on how it prints.
Three scenarios going into the print.
Scenario 1 — Liquidity grab to 73.3k then rejection.
Price sweeps the short liquidation cluster sitting at 73.3k before CPI, triggers the stops above, and then a hot inflation print sends it straight back down. This is the cleanest short setup on the chart right now. Entry on the rejection candle from 73.3k, stop above 74k, targets 70k then 68k on continuation.
Scenario 2 — Rejection from current levels, 70k reaction.
Price never reaches 73.3k. Starts fading here as traders de-risk ahead of the print. 70k is the critical support — that zone holds and it becomes a long scalp back to 71.5k. Loses 70k on a 4h close and the move opens toward 68k then 65-66k with nothing meaningful in between.
Scenario 3 — Flip 73.3k and hold above it.
CPI comes in softer than expected. Clean 4h close above 73.3k with follow through. Daily gap fully accepted, next targets 75k then 76k. This is the bull continuation scenario but requires a genuine inflation surprise to the downside. Lower probability given the macro backdrop but cannot be ignored if the data cooperates.
The highest probability setup today is Scenario 1. The liq grab to 73.3k followed by a CPI-driven rejection gives you a defined entry, a tight stop, and the macro catalyst to accelerate the move. Risk reward is clean.
70k is the level that decides everything tonight. Hold it and bulls stay in control. Lose it and the entire pump from 65k gets retraced fast.
20:30 is the moment.
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.