Dolar Kanadyjski/Jen JapońskiZaktualizowano CADJPY PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS – 4H SELL SETUP (SMART MONEY CONCEP
📊 CADJPY PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS – 4H SELL SETUP (SMART MONEY CONCEPT)
✍️ Analyst: Manual Trader (ICT / SMC)
📅 Date: April 29, 2026
⏱️ Timeframe: 4-Hour (4H)
🖼️ Broker: OANDA
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📍 MY DRAWN LEVELS (MANUAL)
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🔴 SUPPLY ZONE 1 (Selling – Primary)
→ 116.800 – 117.200 JPY
🔴 SUPPLY ZONE 2 (Selling – Secondary)
→ 117.200 – 117.400 JPY (ATH Area)
🟢 DEMAND ZONE 1 (Buying – Primary)
→ 115.200 – 115.400 JPY
🟢 DEMAND ZONE 2 (Buying – Secondary – Deep)
→ 114.200 – 114.600 JPY
🔵 CHOC (Change of Character)
→ Marked on chart – potential trend reversal signal
🟢 CURRENT PRICE
→ ~116.680 JPY
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📈 MARKET STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
────────────────────────────
📌 Price has reached the HIGHEST level on 4H timeframe (ATH)
📌 Two SUPPLY zones are drawn at the top
📌 Two DEMAND zones are drawn at the bottom
📌 CHOC (Change of Character) is identified
🔻 MY SELL SCENARIO (Smart Money Concept):
Condition 1: Price breaks the recent LOW (below current CHOC level)
Condition 2: Change of Character (CHOC) confirmed
Condition 3: Price retraces to FIB 78.6% (not 70-80% range)
Condition 4: Price enters SUPPLY zone
✅ THEN → SELL from SUPPLY zone
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📐 FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (Standard)
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For a SELL setup after CHOC:
| Level | Standard Value | Action |
|-------|----------------|--------|
| FIB 50% | 0.500 | Wait |
| FIB 61.8% | 0.618 | Wait |
| FIB 78.6% | 0.786 | ✅ OPTIMAL SELL ZONE |
| FIB 86.6% | 0.866 | Secondary sell zone |
🎯 Standard Fibonacci level for sell retracement = 78.6% (NOT 70-80% range)
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✅ SELL TRADING PLAN (After CHOC Confirmation)
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🔻 PREREQUISITES (Must happen FIRST):
1️⃣ Price breaks recent LOW (below CHOC level)
2️⃣ CHOC (Change of Character) is confirmed on 4H chart
3️⃣ Price retraces UP to FIB 78.6% (~114.800-115.000 range depending on swing)
🔻 SELL SETUP (After prerequisites met):
Entry: FIB 78.6% level + SUPPLY zone confluence
Stop Loss: Above SUPPLY zone (approx 117.500)
Take Profit 1: DEMAND Zone 1 (115.200 – 115.400)
Take Profit 2: DEMAND Zone 2 (114.200 – 114.600)
Take Profit 3: Extended target (below 114.000)
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⚠️ CURRENT STATUS (April 29, 2026)
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🟡 WAITING – CHOC not yet confirmed
🟡 Price is still near ATH
🟡 Need to see break of recent LOW first
📌 NO SELL YET – patience required
────────────────────────────
📊 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (If CHOC fails)
────────────────────────────
If price DOES NOT break the recent low:
→ No CHOC confirmation
→ No sell setup
→ Market may continue UP or consolidate
────────────────────────────
🧠 MY BIAS (Based on My Levels)
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🔻 BEARISH – AFTER CHOC confirmation + FIB 78.6% retracement + SUPPLY zone
Currently: NEUTRAL – waiting for setup to complete
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⛔ RISK MANAGEMENT
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▸ Risk per trade: 1-2% of capital
▸ Risk:Reward ratio: Minimum 1:2 (preferably 1:3)
▸ Never enter before CHOC confirmation
▸ Wait for 4H candle close confirmation
────────────────────────────
🧠 FINAL VERDICT
────────────────────────────
📌 My analysis is based on SMART MONEY CONCEPTS (ICT/SMC)
📌 The setup requires: Break of low → CHOC → Retrace to FIB 78.6% → Supply zone → SELL
📌 Currently WAITING for break of recent low
🎯 Best sell zone: FIB 78.6% + SUPPLY zone confluence
🎯 Standard Fibonacci level: 78.6% (not 70-80% range)
────────────────────────────
🏷️ TAGS
────────────────────────────
#CADJPY #Forex #4H #SmartMoney #SMC #ICT #SupplyAndDemand #CHOC #ChangeOfCharacter #Fibonacci #SellSetup #PriceAction
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⚠️ NOTICE
────────────────────────────
This is my personal analysis based on my own drawn levels (SUPPLY, DEMAND, CHOC) and Smart Money concepts.
Setup requires CONFIRMATION before entry.
Not financial advice. Do your own research (DYOR).
✍️ Analyst: Manual Trader (ICT / SMC)
📅 Date: April 29, 2026
⏱️ Timeframe: 4-Hour (4H)
🖼️ Broker: OANDA
────────────────────────────
📍 MY DRAWN LEVELS (MANUAL)
────────────────────────────
🔴 SUPPLY ZONE 1 (Selling – Primary)
→ 116.800 – 117.200 JPY
🔴 SUPPLY ZONE 2 (Selling – Secondary)
→ 117.200 – 117.400 JPY (ATH Area)
🟢 DEMAND ZONE 1 (Buying – Primary)
→ 115.200 – 115.400 JPY
🟢 DEMAND ZONE 2 (Buying – Secondary – Deep)
→ 114.200 – 114.600 JPY
🔵 CHOC (Change of Character)
→ Marked on chart – potential trend reversal signal
🟢 CURRENT PRICE
→ ~116.680 JPY
────────────────────────────
📈 MARKET STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
────────────────────────────
📌 Price has reached the HIGHEST level on 4H timeframe (ATH)
📌 Two SUPPLY zones are drawn at the top
📌 Two DEMAND zones are drawn at the bottom
📌 CHOC (Change of Character) is identified
🔻 MY SELL SCENARIO (Smart Money Concept):
Condition 1: Price breaks the recent LOW (below current CHOC level)
Condition 2: Change of Character (CHOC) confirmed
Condition 3: Price retraces to FIB 78.6% (not 70-80% range)
Condition 4: Price enters SUPPLY zone
✅ THEN → SELL from SUPPLY zone
────────────────────────────
📐 FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (Standard)
────────────────────────────
For a SELL setup after CHOC:
| Level | Standard Value | Action |
|-------|----------------|--------|
| FIB 50% | 0.500 | Wait |
| FIB 61.8% | 0.618 | Wait |
| FIB 78.6% | 0.786 | ✅ OPTIMAL SELL ZONE |
| FIB 86.6% | 0.866 | Secondary sell zone |
🎯 Standard Fibonacci level for sell retracement = 78.6% (NOT 70-80% range)
────────────────────────────
✅ SELL TRADING PLAN (After CHOC Confirmation)
────────────────────────────
🔻 PREREQUISITES (Must happen FIRST):
1️⃣ Price breaks recent LOW (below CHOC level)
2️⃣ CHOC (Change of Character) is confirmed on 4H chart
3️⃣ Price retraces UP to FIB 78.6% (~114.800-115.000 range depending on swing)
🔻 SELL SETUP (After prerequisites met):
Entry: FIB 78.6% level + SUPPLY zone confluence
Stop Loss: Above SUPPLY zone (approx 117.500)
Take Profit 1: DEMAND Zone 1 (115.200 – 115.400)
Take Profit 2: DEMAND Zone 2 (114.200 – 114.600)
Take Profit 3: Extended target (below 114.000)
────────────────────────────
⚠️ CURRENT STATUS (April 29, 2026)
────────────────────────────
🟡 WAITING – CHOC not yet confirmed
🟡 Price is still near ATH
🟡 Need to see break of recent LOW first
📌 NO SELL YET – patience required
────────────────────────────
📊 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (If CHOC fails)
────────────────────────────
If price DOES NOT break the recent low:
→ No CHOC confirmation
→ No sell setup
→ Market may continue UP or consolidate
────────────────────────────
🧠 MY BIAS (Based on My Levels)
────────────────────────────
🔻 BEARISH – AFTER CHOC confirmation + FIB 78.6% retracement + SUPPLY zone
Currently: NEUTRAL – waiting for setup to complete
────────────────────────────
⛔ RISK MANAGEMENT
────────────────────────────
▸ Risk per trade: 1-2% of capital
▸ Risk:Reward ratio: Minimum 1:2 (preferably 1:3)
▸ Never enter before CHOC confirmation
▸ Wait for 4H candle close confirmation
────────────────────────────
🧠 FINAL VERDICT
────────────────────────────
📌 My analysis is based on SMART MONEY CONCEPTS (ICT/SMC)
📌 The setup requires: Break of low → CHOC → Retrace to FIB 78.6% → Supply zone → SELL
📌 Currently WAITING for break of recent low
🎯 Best sell zone: FIB 78.6% + SUPPLY zone confluence
🎯 Standard Fibonacci level: 78.6% (not 70-80% range)
────────────────────────────
🏷️ TAGS
────────────────────────────
#CADJPY #Forex #4H #SmartMoney #SMC #ICT #SupplyAndDemand #CHOC #ChangeOfCharacter #Fibonacci #SellSetup #PriceAction
────────────────────────────
⚠️ NOTICE
────────────────────────────
This is my personal analysis based on my own drawn levels (SUPPLY, DEMAND, CHOC) and Smart Money concepts.
Setup requires CONFIRMATION before entry.
Not financial advice. Do your own research (DYOR).
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Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.