Fundamental approach:
- The DXY extended gains this week, rising for three consecutive sessions, supported by surging oil prices that heightened inflation risks and reduced expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts.
- Rising crude prices, driven by the prospect of a protracted Middle East conflict that overshadowed the IEA's largest-ever coordinated 400-million-barrel reserve release, pushed out rate-cut expectations.
- Feb CPI rose 0.3% MoM and held at 2.4% YoY, broadly in line with forecasts, but the full impact of the energy shock has yet to be reflected. - The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting, with markets pricing in only one 0.25% cut, possibly in Sep.
The US dollar may face near-term volatility, with upcoming catalysts including the Fed's rate decision, developments on a ceasefire in the Middle East, and further oil price volatility.
Technical approach:
- DXY retested the support at 98.70 before creating another swing high. The price is approaching the ascending channel's upper bound, suggesting a continued uptrend.
- If DXY remains above 99.45, the price may advance to retest the immediate resistance at 100.25.
- On the contrary, a breach below 99.45 may prompt a further correction toward the EMAs.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
- The DXY extended gains this week, rising for three consecutive sessions, supported by surging oil prices that heightened inflation risks and reduced expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts.
- Rising crude prices, driven by the prospect of a protracted Middle East conflict that overshadowed the IEA's largest-ever coordinated 400-million-barrel reserve release, pushed out rate-cut expectations.
- Feb CPI rose 0.3% MoM and held at 2.4% YoY, broadly in line with forecasts, but the full impact of the energy shock has yet to be reflected. - The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting, with markets pricing in only one 0.25% cut, possibly in Sep.
The US dollar may face near-term volatility, with upcoming catalysts including the Fed's rate decision, developments on a ceasefire in the Middle East, and further oil price volatility.
Technical approach:
- DXY retested the support at 98.70 before creating another swing high. The price is approaching the ascending channel's upper bound, suggesting a continued uptrend.
- If DXY remains above 99.45, the price may advance to retest the immediate resistance at 100.25.
- On the contrary, a breach below 99.45 may prompt a further correction toward the EMAs.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Transakcja zamknięta: osiągnięto wyznaczony cel
BTCUSD touched it 100.25 level and the upper bound.
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