HEY traders!
S&P 500 E-mini futures EXPLODED today! Massive intraday reversal from steep selloff to +0.83% close at $6,801. Trump hinted Iran war nearing resolution, oil crashed from $119 to $86, stagflation fears eased. Testing resistance $6,901.75. Two scenarios: pullback to FVG $6,700-$6,750 consolidation then breakout to $7,000+ OR direct push through resistance to $7,000-$7,100. Bullish momentum building.
The Setup
ES1! at $6,793.75 after INSANE +0.83% rally. Massive green candle spike (ghost wick down then explosion up). Testing resistance $6,901.75 (red zone). Multiple FVG zones: $6,700-$6,750, $6,650-$6,700 (gray). Support $6,585.25 (green). Two scenarios: pullback to FVG consolidation then breakout OR direct push to $7,000+.
Key Levels
Resistance: $6,901.75 (critical), $7,000 (psychological), $7,100 (breakout target)
Support: $6,793.75 (current), $6,750 (upper FVG), $6,700 (FVG mid), $6,650 (lower FVG), $6,585.25 (major demand)
News - March 9, 2026 (BULLISH DOMINANT)
BULLISH (DOMINANT):
• S&P 500 +0.83% to 6,796, Dow +0.50%, Nasdaq +1.38%. DRAMATIC REVERSAL from steep selloff
• Trump: Iran war "very far ahead" of 4-5 week timeline (NEARING RESOLUTION)
• Strait of Hormuz REOPENING to maritime traffic (shipping disruptions ending)
• OIL CRASHED: $119 → $86 (collapsed after Trump comments, energy stability returning)
• Geopolitical risk premium UNWINDING (safe-haven flows reversing)
• Tech sector SURGED: Semiconductors +3.93%, Broadcom +4.6%, AMD +4.6%, Nvidia +2.73%
• 9 of 11 S&P sectors GREEN (broad-based rally, tech leadership)
• Morgan Stanley: US market emerging from rolling correction, earnings growth resilient
• Investors pivoted from energy panic to high-quality growth stocks
• VIX -13.47% (fear index collapsing, volatility easing)
• Russell 2000 +1.12% (small-caps participating)
• Caterpillar +3.39%, Amgen +2.01% (cyclicals strong)
• Final-hour rebound (late comeback after Trump comments)
• Market looking for any opportunity to jump back into equities (CFRA)
BEARISH/RISK:
• Stagflation fears PERSIST: Weak jobs report Friday + high energy costs (before oil crash)
• Fed TRAPPED: Price stability vs full employment (dual mandate conflict)
• Fed expected to keep rates UNCHANGED through H1 2026 (CME FedWatch)
• Iran selected Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader (Trump deems unacceptable)
• Homebuilders, banks, aerospace/defense UNDERPERFORMED (clear losers)
• Financials -0.52%, Energy -0.43% (only 2 sectors red)
• Cisco -3.08%, Boeing -2.70%, IBM -2.08% (laggards)
• Key data this week: CPI, Q4 GDP, PCE (volatility risk, potential to move markets)
• Declining issues outnumbered advancers 1.06-to-1 (NYSE breadth weak)
• 204 new lows vs 105 new highs (NYSE weakness)
• Uncertainty remains: Duration of conflict, Hormuz closure duration
• Intraday swings = added volatility (investors digesting headlines)
Two Scenarios
PULLBACK THEN BREAKOUT : Reject $6,901.75 → Pullback to FVG $6,700-$6,750 → Consolidate → Break $6,901.75 → Target $7,000-$7,100. Triggers: Profit-taking after rally, healthy consolidation, then Iran resolution confirmed, oil stays low, CPI/PCE data benign, tech momentum continues.
DIRECT BREAKOUT: Break $6,901.75 with volume → Target $7,000 → $7,100. Triggers: Iran war ends quickly, oil stays at $86, stagflation fears fade, Fed dovish surprise, tech sector leadership accelerates, Morgan Stanley thesis plays out.
My Take
BULLISH (pullback then up, direct breakout). ES1! EXPLODED +0.83% on Iran resolution hopes. Trump: War "very far ahead" of timeline. Oil CRASHED $119 → $86 = stagflation fears easing. Tech SURGED: Semis +3.93%, Broadcom/AMD +4.6%. 9 of 11 sectors green. Morgan Stanley: Emerging from correction, earnings resilient. VIX -13.47% (fear collapsing). Testing $6,901.75 resistance after spike. Likely pullback to FVG $6,700-$6,750 for consolidation (healthy), then breakout to $7,000+. If breaks $6,901.75 directly, target $7,100. Key: Hold $6,700 support. Break below $6,650 = retest $6,585.25.
What do you think? Pullback or direct breakout? Drop your take! 👇
🚀 Boost if this helped!
Not financial advice. DYOR.
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Get Access and See Full Results👇
jackofalltrades.vip 🌐
Get Access and See Full Results👇
jackofalltrades.vip 🌐
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.