Setup: On the 4h chart, F collapsed from ~14.50 in late February to a low near 11.30 in early March, then built a base through April in the 11.50–12.80 range. The most recent 4h and 1h action shows a powerful gap-and-go candle on the current session — opening near 12.00 and surging to 13.35 on the highest volume bar visible on the 1h chart (30M+ shares), cleanly breaking above the prior April swing highs around 13.00 and the 12.75–13.05 consolidation zone. This is a volume-confirmed breakout through a meaningful resistance shelf, not a random gap.
Flow: The catalyst is credible — Trump China trip reducing auto tariff fears directly benefits Ford. Options flow is overwhelmingly call-sided with a 17x call/put volume ratio and $380K in bullish premium, with notable ask-side 13C and 13.5C buying across the May 22 and May 29 expirations. The single large 20K-contract bid-side 13C on May 29 introduces some hedging noise but is dwarfed by net call accumulation. Analyst targets (~13.23) are now below current price, which means the stock has re-rated — fast money is chasing, not fading. Insider net buying adds a slow-burn tailwind.
Plan: Stop is placed below the breakout shelf and the prior consolidation ceiling (~12.75–12.85 zone); a close back below that level invalidates the thesis entirely. The 30Y Bond Auction and Kashkari remarks add rate-sensitivity risk within the next hour, so position sizing should reflect that event overhang. Target is the February breakdown origin near 14.50, the last meaningful supply zone before the March collapse — a clean level with roughly 2.3R on the trade. TTL is short given price is already at the breakout level.
📍 Entry: 13.35
🛑 Stop: 12.85
🎯 Target: 14.50
⚖️ R:R: 2.30
Flow: The catalyst is credible — Trump China trip reducing auto tariff fears directly benefits Ford. Options flow is overwhelmingly call-sided with a 17x call/put volume ratio and $380K in bullish premium, with notable ask-side 13C and 13.5C buying across the May 22 and May 29 expirations. The single large 20K-contract bid-side 13C on May 29 introduces some hedging noise but is dwarfed by net call accumulation. Analyst targets (~13.23) are now below current price, which means the stock has re-rated — fast money is chasing, not fading. Insider net buying adds a slow-burn tailwind.
Plan: Stop is placed below the breakout shelf and the prior consolidation ceiling (~12.75–12.85 zone); a close back below that level invalidates the thesis entirely. The 30Y Bond Auction and Kashkari remarks add rate-sensitivity risk within the next hour, so position sizing should reflect that event overhang. Target is the February breakdown origin near 14.50, the last meaningful supply zone before the March collapse — a clean level with roughly 2.3R on the trade. TTL is short given price is already at the breakout level.
📍 Entry: 13.35
🛑 Stop: 12.85
🎯 Target: 14.50
⚖️ R:R: 2.30
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monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.