Bias: Short (Counter-Trend) | Timeframe: 1H aligned with 4H | Pair: GBPJPY
Overview
GBPJPY has been recovering from a significant drop after failing to hold above the 216.00 area. Price is now grinding back up into a well-defined supply zone on the 1H, with the 4H structure still bearish above current price. This is a counter-trend scalp — we are not calling a reversal, simply targeting a quick move into lower demand before any potential continuation higher.
Technical Breakdown
4H Context: The 4H chart confirmed a CHoCH to the downside from the highs around 216.50 — 217.00. Price has since been in a corrective recovery phase, with all major moving averages stacked bearishly overhead. The 4H premium zone sits between 214.00 — 215.50, which aligns directly with where we are looking to sell.
1H Execution: On the 1H, price printed a clear CHoCH after the sharp bearish impulse from early May. Since then, price has been forming higher lows (EOH structure visible on chart) in a slow grind upward — a classic retracement into supply. Price is now pushing into the 1H sell zone with confluence from:
Bearish moving average compression overhead
Prior support-turned-resistance at 214.00 — 214.10
Multiple Equal Highs (EOH) marking liquidity above current price that could be swept before the reversal
Key Levels
Zone Price
Stop Loss 214. 494
Sell Entry 214. 065
Current Price 213. 637
Take Profit 1 213. 169
Take Profit 2 212. 336
Extreme Low Support 211. 500
Trade Parameters
Entry: Sell limit at 214. 065 (supply zone / prior structure)
Stop Loss: 214. 494 (above the supply zone — approx 43 pips of risk)
TP1: 213. 169 (first structural demand / partial close — approx 90 pips)
TP2: 212. 336 (deeper demand zone — approx 173 pips)
Risk : Reward → TP1 ≈ 1 : 2.1 | TP2 ≈ 1 : 4.0
Key Risks & Invalidation
A clean 1H close above 214. 494 invalidates this setup entirely — bulls reclaim the zone.
Thursday's UK GDP release (May 14) is a major risk event for GBP pairs. A strong GDP print will likely send GBPJPY higher and stop out this trade — consider managing size or waiting until after the release.
Tuesday's US CPI (May 12, 12:30 UTC) also affects JPY crosses — a soft print weakens USD broadly and could provide JPY strength that helps the short.
BOE rhetoric remains a wildcard — any hawkish BoE speak = GBP strength = counter to this trade.
Summary
Clean structure, clear supply, defined risk. We are selling into a premium zone on a pair that already broke character to the downside. TP2 targets the CCE / demand zone where buyers previously absorbed supply. Manage the trade around Thursday's UK GDP and scale out at TP1 to protect the position.
"Sell the rally, protect the capital."
Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Overview
GBPJPY has been recovering from a significant drop after failing to hold above the 216.00 area. Price is now grinding back up into a well-defined supply zone on the 1H, with the 4H structure still bearish above current price. This is a counter-trend scalp — we are not calling a reversal, simply targeting a quick move into lower demand before any potential continuation higher.
Technical Breakdown
4H Context: The 4H chart confirmed a CHoCH to the downside from the highs around 216.50 — 217.00. Price has since been in a corrective recovery phase, with all major moving averages stacked bearishly overhead. The 4H premium zone sits between 214.00 — 215.50, which aligns directly with where we are looking to sell.
1H Execution: On the 1H, price printed a clear CHoCH after the sharp bearish impulse from early May. Since then, price has been forming higher lows (EOH structure visible on chart) in a slow grind upward — a classic retracement into supply. Price is now pushing into the 1H sell zone with confluence from:
Bearish moving average compression overhead
Prior support-turned-resistance at 214.00 — 214.10
Multiple Equal Highs (EOH) marking liquidity above current price that could be swept before the reversal
Key Levels
Zone Price
Stop Loss 214. 494
Sell Entry 214. 065
Current Price 213. 637
Take Profit 1 213. 169
Take Profit 2 212. 336
Extreme Low Support 211. 500
Trade Parameters
Entry: Sell limit at 214. 065 (supply zone / prior structure)
Stop Loss: 214. 494 (above the supply zone — approx 43 pips of risk)
TP1: 213. 169 (first structural demand / partial close — approx 90 pips)
TP2: 212. 336 (deeper demand zone — approx 173 pips)
Risk : Reward → TP1 ≈ 1 : 2.1 | TP2 ≈ 1 : 4.0
Key Risks & Invalidation
A clean 1H close above 214. 494 invalidates this setup entirely — bulls reclaim the zone.
Thursday's UK GDP release (May 14) is a major risk event for GBP pairs. A strong GDP print will likely send GBPJPY higher and stop out this trade — consider managing size or waiting until after the release.
Tuesday's US CPI (May 12, 12:30 UTC) also affects JPY crosses — a soft print weakens USD broadly and could provide JPY strength that helps the short.
BOE rhetoric remains a wildcard — any hawkish BoE speak = GBP strength = counter to this trade.
Summary
Clean structure, clear supply, defined risk. We are selling into a premium zone on a pair that already broke character to the downside. TP2 targets the CCE / demand zone where buyers previously absorbed supply. Manage the trade around Thursday's UK GDP and scale out at TP1 to protect the position.
"Sell the rally, protect the capital."
Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.