GBPUSD is no longer experiencing a simple correction. Since losing the key balance zone around 1.3400, the pair has entered a more structured decline: weak rebounds, sharp drops, and continued pressure toward lower levels.
What stands out is how quickly sellers return whenever buyers attempt a recovery. The pair is currently trading near 1.3197, below the EMA34 around 1.3261 and the EMA89 near 1.3330. These moving averages are acting as a strong ceiling, making every rebound increasingly difficult.
My preferred scenario is a corrective bounce toward 1.3230–1.3260 to retest resistance before sellers regain control and push GBPUSD toward 1.3100.
Fundamentally, the backdrop remains supportive for the US Dollar. Markets continue to price in the possibility of higher-for-longer US interest rates, while recent UK economic data has failed to provide a strong catalyst for Sterling.
As long as GBPUSD remains below 1.3260, the broader short-term structure continues to favor sellers.
What stands out is how quickly sellers return whenever buyers attempt a recovery. The pair is currently trading near 1.3197, below the EMA34 around 1.3261 and the EMA89 near 1.3330. These moving averages are acting as a strong ceiling, making every rebound increasingly difficult.
My preferred scenario is a corrective bounce toward 1.3230–1.3260 to retest resistance before sellers regain control and push GBPUSD toward 1.3100.
Fundamentally, the backdrop remains supportive for the US Dollar. Markets continue to price in the possibility of higher-for-longer US interest rates, while recent UK economic data has failed to provide a strong catalyst for Sterling.
As long as GBPUSD remains below 1.3260, the broader short-term structure continues to favor sellers.
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