The ECB’s November Consumer Expectations Survey shows that euro-area consumers view inflation as remaining elevated but stable. Perceived inflation over the past year was unchanged at 3.1%, while inflation expectations for the year ahead stayed at 2.8%. Longer-term expectations remain well anchored, with three-year expectations at 2.5% and five-year expectations at 2.2%, broadly consistent with the ECB’s target.
Income growth expectations over the next 12 months were unchanged at a modest 1.2%. Consumers reported slightly stronger spending growth over the past year, but expectations for future spending eased, suggesting some caution as purchasing power pressures persist.
Economic growth expectations deteriorated further, with households becoming more pessimistic about the outlook. However, expectations for the unemployment rate one year ahead edged slightly lower, indicating that consumers still see the labour market as relatively resilient despite weaker growth sentiment.
In housing and credit, expectations for home price growth and mortgage rates over the next year declined modestly. Perceptions of tight credit conditions over the past year eased, while expectations for future credit tightness were broadly unchanged.
For today’s trading, the key takeaway is that inflation expectations remain anchored and are not drifting higher, which supports the view of a cautious or on-hold ECB stance. At the same time, weaker growth sentiment reinforces a soft macro backdrop for the euro area, potentially weighing on risk assets while offering some support to bonds.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Income growth expectations over the next 12 months were unchanged at a modest 1.2%. Consumers reported slightly stronger spending growth over the past year, but expectations for future spending eased, suggesting some caution as purchasing power pressures persist.
Economic growth expectations deteriorated further, with households becoming more pessimistic about the outlook. However, expectations for the unemployment rate one year ahead edged slightly lower, indicating that consumers still see the labour market as relatively resilient despite weaker growth sentiment.
In housing and credit, expectations for home price growth and mortgage rates over the next year declined modestly. Perceptions of tight credit conditions over the past year eased, while expectations for future credit tightness were broadly unchanged.
For today’s trading, the key takeaway is that inflation expectations remain anchored and are not drifting higher, which supports the view of a cautious or on-hold ECB stance. At the same time, weaker growth sentiment reinforces a soft macro backdrop for the euro area, potentially weighing on risk assets while offering some support to bonds.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.