Fed Decision Preview: Iran War + Inflation Explosion, No Rate Cut This Week Expected
Market Expectations: Rates to Remain Unchanged This Week, Short-Term Easing Hopes Essentially Vanished
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the market's probability of a rate cut this week has dropped to near zero.
Before the outbreak of the war, the market expected the Fed to cut rates in June, followed by at least one more cut before the end of the year. However, the Iran war and its impact on oil prices and inflation have forced the market to reassess the Fed's path. Fed officials typically tend to ignore short-term oil price shocks, but the current energy crisis is unprecedented in scale, and inflation expectations have risen significantly, making it difficult for the Fed to turn a blind eye.
Powell's Remarks Are Under Close Attention, Term Countdown Adds Uncertainty
This meeting will be Powell's penultimate policy meeting as Fed Chairman, and the market is particularly sensitive to his remarks. Powell needs to balance his statements on inflation, employment, economic growth, and the policy path in his post-meeting statement.
Market Expectations: Rates to Remain Unchanged This Week, Short-Term Easing Hopes Essentially Vanished
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the market's probability of a rate cut this week has dropped to near zero.
Before the outbreak of the war, the market expected the Fed to cut rates in June, followed by at least one more cut before the end of the year. However, the Iran war and its impact on oil prices and inflation have forced the market to reassess the Fed's path. Fed officials typically tend to ignore short-term oil price shocks, but the current energy crisis is unprecedented in scale, and inflation expectations have risen significantly, making it difficult for the Fed to turn a blind eye.
Powell's Remarks Are Under Close Attention, Term Countdown Adds Uncertainty
This meeting will be Powell's penultimate policy meeting as Fed Chairman, and the market is particularly sensitive to his remarks. Powell needs to balance his statements on inflation, employment, economic growth, and the policy path in his post-meeting statement.
Uwaga
Gold prices are trending closer to my analytical chart; traders who read this analysis should find it beneficial.
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.