The Bond Yield Story
India’s 10-year government bond yield has been moving inside a long contracting triangle for more than 20 years.
This triangle will not last forever. When it breaks, the move can be strong and last for years.
The Rupee Story
The USD/INR chart shows a very clear uptrend since 2011.
This means the rupee has been slowly losing value for many years.
Fiscal Pressure
As per a Reuters update on TradingView’s news feed, the GST Council has approved tax cuts on many consumer goods starting September 22, 2025.
Implication for markets:
(source : in.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3UQ13Y:0-india-approves-tax-cuts-for-hundreds-of-consumer-items-to-spur-demand/
)
Big Picture
In short: The charts show yields coiling and rupee sliding. Fundamentals only add more weight to this setup.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
India’s 10-year government bond yield has been moving inside a long contracting triangle for more than 20 years.
- The highs are getting lower.
- The lows are getting higher.
- Yields are now sitting near the middle, around 6.5%.
This triangle will not last forever. When it breaks, the move can be strong and last for years.
- If yields break down: Bond prices go up, borrowing gets cheaper.
- If yields break up: Borrowing costs rise, pressure builds on companies and the government.
The Rupee Story
The USD/INR chart shows a very clear uptrend since 2011.
- Every dip has made a higher low.
- The line of support is still holding.
- Today the rupee is near ₹88 per USD.
This means the rupee has been slowly losing value for many years.
- Weak rupee: Imports (oil, gold, electronics) become costlier → inflation risk.
- But: Exporters like IT and pharma get some advantage.
Fiscal Pressure
As per a Reuters update on TradingView’s news feed, the GST Council has approved tax cuts on many consumer goods starting September 22, 2025.
- This could boost consumption.
- But it may also lead to a large revenue shortfall for the government.
Implication for markets:
- Bond yields: More government borrowing could push yields higher.
- Rupee: Fiscal stress may keep INR weak against USD.
(source : in.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3UQ13Y:0-india-approves-tax-cuts-for-hundreds-of-consumer-items-to-spur-demand/
)
Big Picture
- Bond yields are stuck inside a long contracting triangle – a breakout is coming.
- The rupee has been in a steady downtrend – the pressure is clear.
- Fiscal moves like GST tax cuts add extra risk, tilting towards higher yields and weaker INR.
In short: The charts show yields coiling and rupee sliding. Fundamentals only add more weight to this setup.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
WaveXplorer | Elliott Wave insights
📊 X profile: @veerappa89
📊 X profile: @veerappa89
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WaveXplorer | Elliott Wave insights
📊 X profile: @veerappa89
📊 X profile: @veerappa89
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.