Good Evening and I hope you are well.
#mnq1 - nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Neutral as can be. 25650 is the equilibrium and we closed 25689. Don’t make more out of this than there is. Contracting trading range (triangles) and we will likely break out next 2 weeks. I do think bulls are favored but we can always get a bear trap first. It would be very strong by the bulls if we stay above 25500 and just go up. I do think a lower low trap is more likely though.
current market cycle: trading range since November / currently a ascending triangle which will likely break to the upside soon
key levels for next week: 25200 - 27000
bull case: Higher lows but mostly sideways. No side has a clear advantage but earnings are around the corner and what are the odds of Q4 disappointing? Low. Very very low. So are bulls heavily favored for another bullish breakout? Maybe not heavily but if I had to take a trade it would be long. We have many markets with obvious higher targets. I would be patient though and see how this Greenland excrementshow plays out on Monday/Tuesday and only join the bulls if we see big buying volume coming through.
Invalidation is below 25200
bear case: The chart is clear, higher lows and the pullbacks got increasingly smaller. Bears just have to give up above 26000 because we could go up to 26500 or even 27000. This has not changed. The best the bears can hope for is a sell spike and I think most will quickly cover if we stall or pull back. Only a huge trade-war escalation could turn the markets - at least on this topic. Q4 earnings could maybe disappoint but I highly doubt that.
Invalidation is above 26200
short term: Expecting a sell-spike and then higher highs and a re-test of the ATH and most likely a new one and even 27000.
medium-long term - Update from 2026-01-10: New ath most likely soon.
#mnq1 - nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Neutral as can be. 25650 is the equilibrium and we closed 25689. Don’t make more out of this than there is. Contracting trading range (triangles) and we will likely break out next 2 weeks. I do think bulls are favored but we can always get a bear trap first. It would be very strong by the bulls if we stay above 25500 and just go up. I do think a lower low trap is more likely though.
current market cycle: trading range since November / currently a ascending triangle which will likely break to the upside soon
key levels for next week: 25200 - 27000
bull case: Higher lows but mostly sideways. No side has a clear advantage but earnings are around the corner and what are the odds of Q4 disappointing? Low. Very very low. So are bulls heavily favored for another bullish breakout? Maybe not heavily but if I had to take a trade it would be long. We have many markets with obvious higher targets. I would be patient though and see how this Greenland excrementshow plays out on Monday/Tuesday and only join the bulls if we see big buying volume coming through.
Invalidation is below 25200
bear case: The chart is clear, higher lows and the pullbacks got increasingly smaller. Bears just have to give up above 26000 because we could go up to 26500 or even 27000. This has not changed. The best the bears can hope for is a sell spike and I think most will quickly cover if we stall or pull back. Only a huge trade-war escalation could turn the markets - at least on this topic. Q4 earnings could maybe disappoint but I highly doubt that.
Invalidation is above 26200
short term: Expecting a sell-spike and then higher highs and a re-test of the ATH and most likely a new one and even 27000.
medium-long term - Update from 2026-01-10: New ath most likely soon.
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