Nvidia just became the center of another “AI bubble” debate after headlines highlighted a 32% Q/Q inventory increase. The surface-level take was bearish, but the clarification from management changed the context. According to today’s memo, the buildup is preemptive staging for the Blackwell platform, not a sign of weakening demand. These units are tied to presold systems, meaning this is logistics positioning, not channel stuffing.
On the tape, the story is more technical than fundamental. Heavy insider selling (CEO/CFO), hedge fund trimming, and SoftBank pressure all created the sell-side imbalance we’ve been seeing for weeks. But despite those headwinds, the chart continues to defend major support zones.
Key Observations:
• 177–178 acted as the first demand pocket, aligning with trend support and prior volume nodes.
• Price continues trading within a controlled downtrend, but each flush is producing diminishing downside extension—a sign of seller exhaustion.
• The real liquidity magnets remain below:
– 172.93
– 170.69
– 164.01 (golden support if the market unwinds further)
The bearish narrative points to elevated inventories and institutional unloading. The bullish narrative focuses on Blackwell staging and enterprise AI demand still being early-cycle. Both can be true at once. That’s why the environment favors high-probability scalps, not oversized directional bets.
My Read: This is a volatility market. NVDA is still in discovery mode, and both sides will get opportunities. Until NVDA reclaims 182.55, sellers maintain short-term control. A break below 172.93 opens a path into the 170/169s where real buyers should step in.
This isn’t about predicting a hero reversal—it's about respecting levels and trading the reaction.
📌 PROFIT TARGETS & STOP ZONES (Required by TV)
Upside Targets:
• 182.55 (first resistance)
• 186.20 (gap fill supply zone)
• 190.17–191.05 (major distribution shelf)
Downside Targets:
• 172.93
• 170.69
• 164.01 (golden support)
Invalidation / Stop Zone:
• Close above 186.50 invalidates the short-term bearish drift.
• Close below 170 invalidates the shallow bounce thesis and opens deeper liquidity.
On the tape, the story is more technical than fundamental. Heavy insider selling (CEO/CFO), hedge fund trimming, and SoftBank pressure all created the sell-side imbalance we’ve been seeing for weeks. But despite those headwinds, the chart continues to defend major support zones.
Key Observations:
• 177–178 acted as the first demand pocket, aligning with trend support and prior volume nodes.
• Price continues trading within a controlled downtrend, but each flush is producing diminishing downside extension—a sign of seller exhaustion.
• The real liquidity magnets remain below:
– 172.93
– 170.69
– 164.01 (golden support if the market unwinds further)
The bearish narrative points to elevated inventories and institutional unloading. The bullish narrative focuses on Blackwell staging and enterprise AI demand still being early-cycle. Both can be true at once. That’s why the environment favors high-probability scalps, not oversized directional bets.
My Read: This is a volatility market. NVDA is still in discovery mode, and both sides will get opportunities. Until NVDA reclaims 182.55, sellers maintain short-term control. A break below 172.93 opens a path into the 170/169s where real buyers should step in.
This isn’t about predicting a hero reversal—it's about respecting levels and trading the reaction.
📌 PROFIT TARGETS & STOP ZONES (Required by TV)
Upside Targets:
• 182.55 (first resistance)
• 186.20 (gap fill supply zone)
• 190.17–191.05 (major distribution shelf)
Downside Targets:
• 172.93
• 170.69
• 164.01 (golden support)
Invalidation / Stop Zone:
• Close above 186.50 invalidates the short-term bearish drift.
• Close below 170 invalidates the shallow bounce thesis and opens deeper liquidity.
💥 Boombussin | Riding the cycle of profits, pain, and progress.
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💥 Boombussin | Riding the cycle of profits, pain, and progress.
Powiązane publikacje
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.