Based on the potential gap fills and current economic events I see either the war in Iran escalating causing immediate bullish pressure or for there to be a false de-escalation prior where they open existing reserves of oil or create sanctions followed by a further escalation of the war leading to the second bullish gap fill
Considering how invested the US and Israel are through Venezuela, their vast armies, drones, overseas bases, vessels etc I don't see the war de-escalating anytime soon. Especially considering how many of Irans leaders have been killed in the conflict
It's important to keep an eye on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and general control over this region. True sanctions and active traffic of vessels can indicate a true bearish move on oil potentially causing it to retrace back to baseline levels. Apart from this the conflict along with disruption to the Strait's oil supplies can push it back to range highs
Considering how invested the US and Israel are through Venezuela, their vast armies, drones, overseas bases, vessels etc I don't see the war de-escalating anytime soon. Especially considering how many of Irans leaders have been killed in the conflict
It's important to keep an eye on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and general control over this region. True sanctions and active traffic of vessels can indicate a true bearish move on oil potentially causing it to retrace back to baseline levels. Apart from this the conflict along with disruption to the Strait's oil supplies can push it back to range highs
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