The Game Plan.
1. Based on the SPX general trend.
2. Figure out the top1% performing sector and stock (outperformers).
//lets say, before recent slump BTC was the benchmark. And now it's probably SOXX (semis).
3. Compare the relative performance (/) to SOXX (/SOXX).
1. Based on the SPX general trend.
2. Figure out the top1% performing sector and stock (outperformers).
//lets say, before recent slump BTC was the benchmark. And now it's probably SOXX (semis).
3. Compare the relative performance (/) to SOXX (/SOXX).
Uwaga
OIH (oil services) beginning of february
Uwaga
some people use /SPX. I think it's better to compare to SOXX. because that's the top, hot sector. Sticking with SOXX means lowering risk due to demand side.Uwaga
XBI (bio tech) break out since november. (Inflow month... pay attention. With SPX being volatile).
Uwaga
BLOK blockchain, btc miners in around APR or September. Uwaga
Gold based from gold miners. November, December or January.
Note: "Gretzky principle: go where puck will be, not where it is". Meaning, dont buy the break outs -- buy before they happen. Sell on the weakness.
Uwaga
Clean tech break out. ---> Buy before they break out.
//only buy sectors that are above the 200dma.
Uwaga
Buy before they break out - meaning, add the alert in half way.Uwaga
Lithium miners are interesting. Since mid FEB.
Uwaga
are.. or was interesting.Uwaga
Accumulation + Tight ranges are good. High swingy volatile, "spread out" are bad. Look for HIGHER LOW structure. It points to institutional demand (or market demand in general). Dumb money don't buy at lows.Uwaga
You can use /spx for accuracy (timing the entries). But /SOXX to screen for right sectors, stocks.
Uwaga
If Gold beats SPX, that gives mixed feelings. If it beats SOXX, that gives me confidence. Uwaga
Your ultimate goal as a swing trader should be to have your portfolio always go up.It's common sense but it separates actually earners with losers.
You have no control over the outcome (nor should worry about it, even if failing or losing everything)
- you have to control the precision of your entries (the timing and quality).
Mastery is mastering this basic. Not in complex stuff.
The goal (your portfolio, one direction): ----> ----> ----> ----> ---> .
Step one; is to cut off what's impossible. Believe.
note: You follow the SPX general trend.
Uwaga
Rule 1: never buy extensions. Only pattern break outs.
Uwaga
Level Two! Navigating and reading market "environment". Using intermarking analysis, "reads" (tells).
Value outperforming growth has been correlating with FAANG underperformance. Probably expensive FAANG, money rotates to value. And you can (I would argue) pin point or prove that with this chart. Where-ever FAANG bottoms and VTV/VUG peaks (double top), money rotates back to tech.
You dont want to lose time. And money.
Uwaga
Your money correlate with the outcome of the chart.
Uwaga
all results correlate with SPX structure. It's the same as to say "SPX is the driver", or the same as saying "buy based on VIX high rejection, or VIX is the driver".
Uwaga
BTC/GOLD is the best indicator for pure "risk on" environment vs "risk off" (safety, fears, risks).
When in risk on, it's like taking a candy from a baby. Easy money.
It makes sense why we are on a risk off, because of USA vs IRAN, and I would be cautious about 2027 due to CHNA vs TAIWAN. (dont argue with the market. Be nimble).
Uwaga
if you are a loser... you buy this low, because.. "cycle lows". Lows == massive returns. Congrats on underperforming the market, losing time and money due to panic selling.Uwaga
Note: success correlate with upslope 50 and 200dma. Which means - BTC SUCKS this first half of year. Don't compete. Dominate. It means only be with trends that align with this 50/200 rule. Uwaga
which is to say.. BTC/SOXX Would have humbled you. Basics.. my guy.
Uwaga
Following technicals and swing trading means being behind the curve, all these top swing traders share money rotation after the fact. I think it makes sense to use investment approach, what happens 6-12 months ahead, because that's the true driver (and markets work based on investment, not trades). ie think in abstraction. You want to be "early" (6-12 months before the fact, fundamental). Markets always price something in.
Which proves why bitcoin without drivers would not rally anywhere, despite of xyz sentiment thesis or "bullish technicals".
And why buying gold (before "taiwan) made sense. Because markets price in the future. Charts are backwards looking, despite of the success that correlate with sharp 50/200 slopes.
Uwaga
in this context, USOIL bullish is a head wind for stocks.
Uwaga
Oil market doesnt mater. But sometimes it did have predictive property.
1) USOIL/SPX marks both strength in USOIL and weakness in SPX. in the end of 2021 crude oil was correlated to rising inflation (or vice versa?)(above 1-2% goldilocks range), with rising TNX yield, in return a headwind for SPX?
2) oil market reversed, in a bullish trend. That spooked the market? Cant recall what was the macro back then.
3) real threat for a iranian sea blockade. (and domino effect).
//In August 2024 the same threat, when Israel-Iran traded with strikes. (Though elevated market in a presidency year before September-October expected pull backs).
Uwaga
"unintended consequences". (dominoes) -> US prolongens war with Iran.. opens potential for Taiwan invasion etc. Because you would correlate this (US attack) to the ones we seen last year, ie a logic fallacy. stocks should fall.
Uwaga
most of the stocks are now bellow 200dma. => bear market.
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