During the 2025–2026 bear market, TRX has been one of the strongest cryptocurrencies. In fact, it has even outperformed Bitcoin.
From the 2022 bottom,
BTCUSDT gained around 712% at its peak and is still up roughly 305% today.
TRXUSDT peaked at approximately 741% and still holds a gain of about 639%.
That's an impressive performance.
However, I believe most of the bullish fundamentals are already priced in.
📊 Fundamentals
1️⃣ TRX Is No Longer Deflationary
One of my biggest long-term bullish arguments for TRX was its deflationary token model.
That changed in August 2025.
Since then, the token supply has started increasing again.
Why?
TRON reduced transaction fees and energy costs by roughly 60% to make the network cheaper.
The downside is simple: users now burn fewer TRX tokens.
Unless network activity grows fast enough to offset this, the network shifts from deflation back to inflation.
2️⃣ USDT Transfers Were a Huge Advantage... But Not Forever
TRON became the largest network for USDT transfers.
That was a major growth catalyst.
But markets price the future not the past.
Today, competition is much stronger.
SOLUSDT 
ARBUSDT 
BNBUSDT , and many other networks offer fast and inexpensive transactions.
Personally, I rarely use TRON for USDT transfers anymore.
Its monopoly is gone.
3️⃣ Justin Sun Remains a Risk
Almost every major headline surrounding TRON is connected to Justin Sun.
Over the past few years, he has faced multiple investigations and legal actions, including SEC allegations related to market manipulation and unregistered securities.
Whether these cases ultimately matter or not, they remain a significant headline risk.
One major negative news event could quickly pressure the price.
📉 Technical Analysis
The chart has been outstanding since late 2022. Few cryptocurrencies have maintained such a clean uptrend.
However, warning signs are finally starting to appear:
• Price is struggling below the long-term trendline.
• Weekly RSI shows a strong bearish divergence.
• Trading volume has been declining since the all-time high.
• Momentum continues to weaken.
To me, the chart suggests that the long-term uptrend is approaching exhaustion.
🎯 Conclusion
TRX has been one of the strongest coins throughout this bear market. But strength alone doesn't guarantee future returns.
Both fundamentals and technicals suggest the upside is becoming limited.
If I were holding a large TRX position, I would seriously consider taking profits.
My first downside target remains around $0.24–0.26.
We'll reassess the outlook when price reaches that area.
_________
👉 If you want to trade like a professional and not like a gambler — follow for real insights and strategies 🚀
From the 2022 bottom,
BTCUSDT gained around 712% at its peak and is still up roughly 305% today.TRXUSDT peaked at approximately 741% and still holds a gain of about 639%.That's an impressive performance.
However, I believe most of the bullish fundamentals are already priced in.
📊 Fundamentals
1️⃣ TRX Is No Longer Deflationary
One of my biggest long-term bullish arguments for TRX was its deflationary token model.
That changed in August 2025.
Since then, the token supply has started increasing again.
Why?
TRON reduced transaction fees and energy costs by roughly 60% to make the network cheaper.
The downside is simple: users now burn fewer TRX tokens.
Unless network activity grows fast enough to offset this, the network shifts from deflation back to inflation.
2️⃣ USDT Transfers Were a Huge Advantage... But Not Forever
TRON became the largest network for USDT transfers.
That was a major growth catalyst.
But markets price the future not the past.
Today, competition is much stronger.
SOLUSDT ARBUSDT BNBUSDT , and many other networks offer fast and inexpensive transactions.Personally, I rarely use TRON for USDT transfers anymore.
Its monopoly is gone.
3️⃣ Justin Sun Remains a Risk
Almost every major headline surrounding TRON is connected to Justin Sun.
Over the past few years, he has faced multiple investigations and legal actions, including SEC allegations related to market manipulation and unregistered securities.
Whether these cases ultimately matter or not, they remain a significant headline risk.
One major negative news event could quickly pressure the price.
📉 Technical Analysis
The chart has been outstanding since late 2022. Few cryptocurrencies have maintained such a clean uptrend.
However, warning signs are finally starting to appear:
• Price is struggling below the long-term trendline.
• Weekly RSI shows a strong bearish divergence.
• Trading volume has been declining since the all-time high.
• Momentum continues to weaken.
To me, the chart suggests that the long-term uptrend is approaching exhaustion.
🎯 Conclusion
TRX has been one of the strongest coins throughout this bear market. But strength alone doesn't guarantee future returns.
Both fundamentals and technicals suggest the upside is becoming limited.
If I were holding a large TRX position, I would seriously consider taking profits.
My first downside target remains around $0.24–0.26.
We'll reassess the outlook when price reaches that area.
_________
👉 If you want to trade like a professional and not like a gambler — follow for real insights and strategies 🚀
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✔️ Then join my Telegram
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_ _ _ _ _
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🎁 Welcome bonus up to $10,800 + trading fee discounts
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Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.
🤟 Enjoyed this post and want more like it?
✔️ Then join my Telegram
👉 t.me/+1v6UHltC22xlMDdi
_ _ _ _ _
💰 I trade on the BingX 👉 bingx.com/en/partner/cassiustrade
🎁 Welcome bonus up to $10,800 + trading fee discounts
✔️ Then join my Telegram
👉 t.me/+1v6UHltC22xlMDdi
_ _ _ _ _
💰 I trade on the BingX 👉 bingx.com/en/partner/cassiustrade
🎁 Welcome bonus up to $10,800 + trading fee discounts
Powiązane publikacje
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.