Our WTI crude oil contract looks set to close above the 200-day moving average for the first time since July 2025, having broken through resistance on Wednesday that had capped rallies above $62.00 per barrel since November.
Despite well-known concerns around market oversupply, the combination of persistent geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and a significantly weaker US dollar has proven a powerful mix, contributing to the bullish move we’ve seen. With a -0.77 rolling 10-day correlation with DXY on the daily timeframe over the past fortnight, oil, like other USD-priced commodities, has been a clear beneficiary of the latest dollar dump.
Should the contract continue to hold above the 200DMA, it opens the door for longs to be set above the level with a stop beneath $62.00 for protection. $65 looms as a reasonable target, although price action around big figures in between warrants close attention given the tendency for price to gravitate towards them.
With RSI (14) trending higher above the neutral 50 level, upside momentum is building. MACD is confirming, pushing higher into positive territory after crossing the signal line from below in December. The overall message is therefore bullish, favouring long setups over shorts.
Good luck!
DS
Despite well-known concerns around market oversupply, the combination of persistent geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and a significantly weaker US dollar has proven a powerful mix, contributing to the bullish move we’ve seen. With a -0.77 rolling 10-day correlation with DXY on the daily timeframe over the past fortnight, oil, like other USD-priced commodities, has been a clear beneficiary of the latest dollar dump.
Should the contract continue to hold above the 200DMA, it opens the door for longs to be set above the level with a stop beneath $62.00 for protection. $65 looms as a reasonable target, although price action around big figures in between warrants close attention given the tendency for price to gravitate towards them.
With RSI (14) trending higher above the neutral 50 level, upside momentum is building. MACD is confirming, pushing higher into positive territory after crossing the signal line from below in December. The overall message is therefore bullish, favouring long setups over shorts.
Good luck!
DS
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.