**Could Oil Really Surge to $100 Amid a US–Iran Confrontation?**
Statements from energy analyst **Fereidun Fesharaki**, Chairman of FGE NexantECA, have raised market expectations. He suggests that in a full-scale conflict scenario, oil prices could rise toward $90–$100 depending on the scale and duration of supply disruptions.
Brent crude is currently trading near $71. However, any direct targeting of oil flows in the Gulf region could quickly alter the outlook.
The most severe scenario would involve attempts to disrupt or close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes. Any interruption there would likely trigger an immediate supply shock.
Although diplomatic talks have resumed in Geneva, expectations for a breakthrough remain limited, particularly given both sides’ firm positions.
At this stage, the market has begun pricing in a geopolitical risk premium, but not a prolonged and large-scale supply disruption.
Conclusion:
As long as escalation risks remain on the table, oil maintains a clear upside bias. Any confirmed disruption to physical supply could rapidly push prices toward the $90–$100 range.
Statements from energy analyst **Fereidun Fesharaki**, Chairman of FGE NexantECA, have raised market expectations. He suggests that in a full-scale conflict scenario, oil prices could rise toward $90–$100 depending on the scale and duration of supply disruptions.
Brent crude is currently trading near $71. However, any direct targeting of oil flows in the Gulf region could quickly alter the outlook.
The most severe scenario would involve attempts to disrupt or close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes. Any interruption there would likely trigger an immediate supply shock.
Although diplomatic talks have resumed in Geneva, expectations for a breakthrough remain limited, particularly given both sides’ firm positions.
At this stage, the market has begun pricing in a geopolitical risk premium, but not a prolonged and large-scale supply disruption.
Conclusion:
As long as escalation risks remain on the table, oil maintains a clear upside bias. Any confirmed disruption to physical supply could rapidly push prices toward the $90–$100 range.
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Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.